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1.7.1.2 Fuel wood extension 
Deforestation is mainly associated with the supply in fuel wood for the city: it becomes an easy way to earn money, and 
is the principal activity of the migrants out of the civil war (refugees village where the main activity is the charcoal 
production). An interesting factor has to be specified, the eucalyptus plantations, which reduce the impact on the natural 
forest. The Eucalyptus of Congo decided to sell old plots in order to make them profitable: this wood quality was 
accepted by the population, therefore it is a positive factor. 
1.7.1.3 Logging concessions 
The logging concessions do not represent a major risk of deforestation, usually they exploit a few valuable species 
(Niove, Okoumé etc.) without drastically reducing the canopy cover. On an other hand, logging operations open new 
forest tracks for exploitation: cultivators use these new openings to penetrate into deep forest. 
1.7.1.4 Fires 
Burned areas are often found in secondary forests, since regular fires are important components of the shifting 
cultivation system, these fires are spatially limited by the forest-savannah boundary but can be amplified by the wind. 
1.7.1.5 Transportation network 
Two parameters are important: the quality and the delineation of the road for its contribution to deforestation, it helps to 
know where deforestation can occur. It is difficult for local people to find a car because of the expensive costs, people 
have to travel together to reduce their costs and to transport the agricultural and fuel wood production. In the eucalyptus 
plot cases, the company organised also this traffic. This 1s a natural way to interest the population on eucalyptus wood. 
1.7.2 . Prevision tools: the model predictable scenarios 
We can classify the different scenarios in two categories: the positive and the negative evolutions. In the first case, two 
situations can be imagined: an extension of both protected area and eucalyptus plantations in which one secondary 
forest regrowth can be observed. The second solution is an ideal situation of a natural resource management without any 
need to protection. 
In the second case, different factors can produce the increase of forest degradation: the continuum of the urban/rural 
imbalance; the development of secondary centres; an economical increase with logging and agricultural development 
and finally an economical decrease due to civil war. In these cases, the deforestation risks map has as purpose to 
determine at first where the deforestation hotspot could be located first; secondly to heighten people awareness of this 
problem and try to explain them which areas have to be taken as fallow and could be exploited. 
The major problem that will appear is how to explain that 15 to 20 years are necessary for sustainable management to 
local population? But also, how to manage the land ownership if there is the owner, the tenant? Who has to be warned? 
CONCLUSION 
Through the identification and the quantification of the environmental (forest/savannah cover, figure 2) and 
anthropological factors (settlement location, road network and population changes) it was possible to establish an 
assessment of their interrelations and to analyse the connected processes (development along logging road network, 
Pointe-Noire food and fuel wood supplies). The emphasis has been placed on a strategic method in order to improve 
environmental information and to provide a reliable support for natural resources management. 
This procedure has as major advantage an exhaustive study of the factor combination that occurs in this theme, and 
provides a synthetic support for sustainable management as well as future changes. Other advantages are the limited 
costs (use of aerial photographs and radar images) and the easy use of this procedure in developing countries. The main 
inconveniences are the availability of recent information (civil war) and the non-spatial data acquiring (sporadic data). 
The project to produce deforestation risks map, which identify the principal areas that could be deforested throughout 
the different scenarios is reliable. It has to add other studies such as inquiries about local population reactions in front of 
a 15 years fallow time, the old cultural and modern ownership procedures, and the knowledge of the psychological 
factors like the relationship with money. 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 
  
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXIII, Part B7. Amsterdam 2000. 425