ABSTRACT:
This paper forms part of the specia
information technology over tl
the processes of cultural heritage documentation.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Problem of Predictions
What will the process of cultural heritage documentation be like
in 20 years? What developments in technology and society will
be applied in documentation, or in what way will they influence
the need and requirement? One could even ask will there still
be a need, or will 20 years see the archive of heritage
documentation complete?
In order to approach these questions it is necessary to make
some (informed) predictions as to the technology that will
evolve over the next 20 years or so, and the type of society that
i will apply these developments. A dangerous task indeed,
making predictions. :
Some classic predictions, with the wisdom of hindsight:
i e “This telephone' has too many shortcomings to be
3 seriously considered as a means of communication.
ii The device is inherently of no value to us."
a -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
i e "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5
| tons."
| --Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march
‚N of science, 1949
i e "I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers."
--Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
e "640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
e "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in
their home."
--Ken Olson, President, Chairman and founder of
Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
4 e "Everything that can be invented has been invented."
i Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of
Patents, 1899.
These quotations occur frequently on the Internet, and have
become part of information technology folklore. However
rt a né ja
HERITAGE DOCUMENTATION — THE NEXT 20 YEARS
850
C.L. Ogleby
Department of Geomatics, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 301 0
clogleby@unimelb.edu.au
Commission V/4
KEY WORDS: CIPA, Recording, Cultural Heritage, Inventory, Technology
| session at the ISPRS 2004 Istanbul Congress devoted to CIPA Heritage Documentation named
in honour of Hans Foramitti, one of the founders of CIPA (originally the Comité International de Photogrammétrie Architectuale).
The paper attempts to predict the impact that the developing techn
monument documentation over the next 20 years or so, a challenging and perhaps foolhardy exercise. However advances in
he last decade or so has already dramatically changed the way that data is collected, analysed and
displayed. If the pace of development was to continue, then perhaps it is worth at least to ponder the likely impact this will have on
ologies used in ISPRS activities will have on the process of
experiences with the technology over the last 20 years or so do
give a very different foundation from which to make new
predictions for the next twenty.
1.2 Some Starting Predictions: Technology
In order to develop the arguments in this paper, some initial
predictions may be useful. These will be elaborated in the
following sections.
e Microchips will be in most instruments, manufactured
devices and appliances.
e They will also be implanted in humans for a variety
of reasons.
e Their speed will be so fast as to be irrelevant
e The ‘internet’ will be ubiquitous, wireless, fast and
free.
e Positioning technology will be embedded in most
portable devices.
e Data storage will be cents per terabyte, networked,
and accessible from anywhere.
e Voice recognition will be a reality
e Pattern and face recognition will be almost
instantaneous
e All financial transactions will be electronic
e Biotechnology, nano-technology and gene-technology
will be in production and common
e Artificial intelligence will approach that of humans
e Alternative energy sources will be a reality, battery
life and energy storage no longer a concern
(derived in part from Battelle Memorial Institute, 2004)
1.3 Some Starting Predictions: Society
Predicting advances in technology is somewhat easier than
predicting what our societies will be like in 20 years. The task
of cultural heritage documentation takes place within cultures,
so in order to imagine the documentation process in the future
some idea of future society is necessary.
2.2
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