International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XXXIX-B8, 2012 
XXII ISPRS Congress, 25 August — 01 September 2012, Melbourne, Australia 
FUSION OF MULTI PRECURSORS EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS TO ESTIMATE THE 
DATE, MAGNITUDE AND AFFECTED AREA OF THE FORTHCOMING POWERFUL 
EARTHQUAKES 
M. Akhoondzadeh' and M.R. Saradjian 
Remote Sensing Division, Surveying and Geomatics Engineering Department, University College of Engineering, 
University of Tehran, Iran — (makhonz Q ut.ac.ir) 
Keywords: Hazards, earthquake, precursor, prediction, integration, satellite data, ionosphere. 
ABSTRACT: 
Since not any individual precursor can be used as an accurate stand alone means for the earthquake prediction, it is necessary to integrate 
different kinds of precursors. The precursors selected for analysis in this study include electron and ion density, electron temperature, 
total electron content (TEC), electric and magnetic fields and land surface temperature (LST) several days before three strong 
earthquakes which happened in Samoa Islands, Sichuan (China) and Borujerd (Iran). The precursor's variations were monitored using 
data obtained from experiments onboard DEMETER (IAP, ISL, ICE and IMSC) and Aqua-MODIS satellites. Regarding the ionospheric 
precursors, the geomagnetic indices D, and K, were used to distinguish pre-earthquake disturbed states from the other anomalies related 
to the geomagnetic activities. The inter-quartile range of data was utilized to construct their upper and lower bound to detect disturbed 
states outsides the bounds which might be associated with impending earthquakes. When the disturbed state associated with impending 
earthquake is detected, based on the type of precursor, the number of days relative to earthquake day is estimated. Then regarding the 
deviation value of the precursor from the undisturbed state the magnitude of impending earthquake is estimated. The radius of the 
affected area is calculated using the estimated magnitude and Dobrovolsky formula. In order to assess final earthquake parameters (which 
are date, magnitude and radius of the affected area) for each case study, using the median and inter-quartile range of earthquake 
parameters obtained from different precursors, the approximate bounds of final earthquake parameters are defined. For each studied case, 
a good agreement was found between the estimated and registered earthquake parameters. 
1. INTRODUCTION 
Many papers and special monographs have been published on 
satellite observation of perturbations associated with seismic 
activity (Hayakawa and Molchanov, 2002; Pulinets and 
Boyarchuk, 2004, Akhoondzadeh, 2011). 
Earthquake is a dynamic phenomenon and usually happens 
because of crust displacement. When the earthquake happens, 
an energy transfer due to a break down between source and 
environment is made. These changes prior to the earthquake or 
along with it may have different physical and chemical affects 
on the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere, and accordingly 
makes it possible to be detected. These variations of 
lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere parameters before the 
main earthquakes are considered as hint of impending 
earthquakes (earthquake precursors). Widespread researches on 
earthquake prediction over the last decades have resulted in the 
recognition of many earthquake precursors in the lithosphere, 
atmosphere and ionosphere. 
Satellite experiments due to the vast coverage of the seismic 
zones of the Earth along with other sources of information are 
regarded as suitable means for earthquake study. They allow 
performing meaningful statistical studies with a much larger 
number of recorded events. If it can be shown that earthquake 
perturbations are real and systematic then they could be 
considered as short-term precursors, occurring between a few 
hours and a few days before the earthquakes. 
1.1 Ionospheric precursors 
The regional but substantially large-scale changes in 
atmospheric electricity over seismically active areas before the 
seismic shock are transformed into the ionosphere by means of 
a large-scale electric field. 
Pulinets et al. (2003) have shown that ionospheric anomalies 
have been observed in 7396 of earthquakes with magnitude 
greater than 5M, and 100% of earthquakes with magnitude 
greater than 6M, within 5 days before the earthquake events. 
The ionospheric anomalies usually happen in D-layer, E-layer 
and F-layer, and they may be observed 1 to 10 days prior to the 
earthquake and stay until 1 to 2 days after the earthquake 
(Akhoondzadeh et al., 2011). 
1.1.1 TEC Precursor 
TEC is the integrated number of the electrons within the block 
between the satellite and receiver or between two satellites. To 
study TEC variations, data of GIM (Global Ionospheric Map) 
provided by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) were used. 
The GIM is constructed into 5? x 2.5? (Longitude, Latitude) 
grid with a time resolution of 2 hours. 
1.1.2 Ionospheric precursors provided by DEMETER data 
The French micro-satellite DEMETER was launched on June 
29, 2004. The satellite's altitude is about 680 km and its 
measurements are made within 65°N to 65°E. One of 
DEMETER scientific objectives is to detect anomalous 
variations of electromagnetic waves, particle fluxes and 
thermal plasma parameters which could be related to seismic 
activity. 
DEMETER has five instruments on board. They are ICE 
(Instrument Champ Eletrique), IMSC (Instrument Magnetic 
Search Coil), IDP (Instrument Detecteur de Particules), IAP