| for the year 2020 that a population of 8,000,000,000 
people or more can be supported. 
| i a p OECD | REFERENCE 
“ 5 
$5 8 [1]J.Alcomo (ed.): IMAGE2 2.0 Integrated Modeling of 
Global Cli mate Change.Kluer Academic Publishers. 1994 
[2] S.Goto: Assimiiating use of GIS for Socio-Economical 
Simulation for Global Change, Toward Global Planning of 
Sustainable Use of the Earth - Development of Global Eco- 
Engineering- (Ed. S.Murai),Elsevier,pp387-393,1995. 
[3]H. Yamamoto and K. Yamaji: Analysis of Availability of 
Biomas Use by Global Energy-LUC model, CEPRI Report 
CO, Emission 
> 
1334344 
  
  
  
  
1996 1990 1993 2000 us 2000 35. X00 
Yom 
(BaU Scenario) 
90 
1996 1999 1995 Ee 3010 2013 200 
eur 
(Tronto Scenario) 
Fig.8 Estimated Human Induced CO2 Emission 
4. 
CONCLUSION 
As a result of the research, the following items became 
clear: 
: The model to forecast the future amount of CO2 exhaust 
due to energy consumption, land-use change and wood-use 
was made. 
: [t is thought that the result that was obtained in this 
research was compared with the result of other researches, 
so there is validity in this model. 
: The amount's of CO2 exhaust in two kinds of scenarios 
in the year 2020 will beabout 1.6 times and 1.2 times the 
current amount respectively, and the energy consumption 
of the population is thought to be the main cause of the 
increase in the CO2 exhaust. 
: [t has been understood from the result of the simulation 
y94004,1994. 
[+]United Nations,[ World Population Prospects 1990 ,1991 
[5]Energu Statistics, Japan Energy Research Institute, 1996. 
[6] Goto,S., Murai, S., Honda, Y ., and Asakura,K. : A Study on 
the Relationships Between Human Activities and 
Biosphere Using Satellite Data, Proc. of the 17th 
International Society for Photogrammet ry and Remote 
Sensing Washington, Vol.XXIX,Part B7,pp439-443,1992. 
[7]W.P.Cramer, A.M.Solomon, [Climatic Classification 
and Future Global Redistribution of Agncultural Land] , 
Climate Research Vol. . 3,1993 
[R]E.O.Box, [Quantitative Evaluation of Global Primary 
Productivity Models Generated by Computers. Primary 
Productivity of the Biosphere(ed. H.Lieth and 
H.Whittaker)] ‚Springer-Verlag New York Inc., 1975 
[9]H. Lieth: Primary Production of the Major Vegetation 
Units of the World, Primary Productivity of the 
Biosphere(H. Lieth and H. Whittaker, ed. ,Springrt- Verlag New 
Y'ork Inc”, pp.203-215, 1975. 
[10JFAO UNEP, 1981 
[11]S.Brown,A.E.Lugo,J.Chapman, [Canadian Journal of 
Forest Research, 16] ,1986 
[12]United Nations Environment Program, [The Changing 
Atmosphere] ,Nairobi,Kenya, UNEP Environment Bnef 
No.1,1988 
[13]Central Intelligence Agency, [Relating Climate Change 
of its Effects] ,GC78-10154,1987 
[14]OECD, f Economics and Statistics Department] , 
ESD CPE WPI(93)2,1992 
[13] IPCC 2nd report, IPCC,1996. 
Tab.1 Assumpions of IPCC Scenanos 
  
  
CO, Emission) 
Scenario Population Economic Growth Energy Supply 
IS92b 11.3 Billion by 2100| 1990-2025: 2.9% | Oil 12,000EJ 
(Middle (World Bank, 1991)| 1990-2100: 2.3% | Natural Gas 13,000EJ 
Solar Power Generation Cost Falls to $0.075/kWh 
191EJ Biological Fuel is available with $70/barrel 
  
IS92c 
(Lower 
CO, Emission) 
6.4 Billion by 2100 
(United Nations, 
Middle Prospect) 
1990-2025: 2.096 
1990-2100: 1.2% 
Oil 8,000EJ 
Natural Gas 7,300EJ 
Nuclear Power Generation Cost Reduces with 0.4%/year 
  
IS92e 
(Higher 
CO, Emission) 
  
  
11.3 Billion by 2100 
(World Bank, 1991) 
1990-2025: 3.596 
1990-2100: 3.0% 
  
  
Oil 18,400EJ 
Natural Gas 13,000EJ 
Total Abolition of Nuclear Power Generation by 2075 
  
  
Source: IPCC 1st W.G. and WMO/UNEP, Climate Change1992: IPCC Science Assessment Additional Report, A3, p.20 
(EJ=10"J, 1barrel=158.99liter) 
420 International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII, Part 7, Budapest, 1998 
8 ) 8 P 
  
  
o "m