ON PROBABILITY. 55
eli to calculations.” ‘Such statements as these, although not so detailed as might
x Previous t be wished, sufficiently prove that in the Equitable Society, the rate of mor-
0h ergy tality is considerably less than that given by the Northampton Table.
He same fi 94. Mr. Babbage, in a work entitled “ A Comparative View of the va-
WHER ' con rious Institutions for the Assurance of Lives,” has examined the advantages
rect the table which are presented by the different insurance offices in this metropolis. It
VS tlogethey is not our intention to follow him in this inquiry, which is rendered very in-
2 ol ingrgpen tricate from the complicated manner in which some nf the offices make
returns to the assured of a portion of the immense profits which they accu-
by Dr. Hay. mulate, instead of charging, which is obviously a simpler method, the
real value at first.
H, that the * The offices which use the Northampton Table as the basis of their cal-
Hg mo culations are the
Albion, Law Life,
Atlas, London Life Association,
Eagle, Pelican,
Exchange, Royal, Provident,
iF Globe, Rock,
Imperial, Westminster.
ed) by Mo, 95. The doctrine of fire and sea insurances seems.to be at present nearly in
i the same state in which that of life insurances was at the beginning of the last
s of mortality, century. Montucla mentions a treatise on the subject of ship insurances by
are rendered Montandouin, a merchant of Nantes, of which he speaks in terms of com-
ich they have mendation, and seems to intimate that the publication of this work drew the
oh have been attention of the Académie des Sciences. That learned body proposed
the theory of maritime insurances as a prize question in 1783, 1785,
Treasury) ex- and in 1787, but without much success. None of the essays received
words of the were thought to deserve the prize, but, on the last occasion, half the prize
Rose observas of 6000 livres was divided between Lacroix and Bicquilly, two of the com-
England has, petitors, The remaining 3000 livres were intended to be offered, in 1791,
eh for the best tables of premiums for maritime insurance, but the revolution
sof ley and intervened to prevent any adjudication of it. All our present knowledge on
we ie to lire this subject seems to be confined to the personal experience of the under-
ik of writers. oe ~~
'¢ Amini 96. Another extensive application of the theory of probability has been
made by Condorcet, at the instance of the enlightened financier Turgot.
In a work entitled * Essai sur la Probabilité des Décisions,” Condorcet has
tet bi investigated and compared the probabilities of error in the decisions pro-
rely, We nounced by tribunals more or less numerous, and various schemes for deter-
os a mining the verdict. Connected with the same question is the inquiry into
th from Sa the best mode of collecting votes in elections, in which more than two con-
dhe Equi flicting propositions are presented to each elector. Condorcet has examined
§ Dr. rie’ in detail the respective advantages and disadvantages of electing by a simple
{galdres 0 majority, by a majority exceeding a given number, or by a number pro-
i he deo: portional to the whole number of voters, with many others. He arrives at
a the conclusion that the best mode of electing is by a majority not below a
given number of a single assembly.
fn a receni
of the gree
one and ie
« Dauies*
