70 
THE FUTURE OF THE PAST 
THE EUROPEAN HiSTORIC INNER CITY, 
FADED GLORY OR CORE BUSINESS? 
W. van der Toom Vrijthoff 
Associate Professor Real Estate Management 
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture 
Department of Real Estate and Project Management 
P.O. Box 5043, 2600 GA Delft 
The Netherlands 
E mail W.vanderToomVrijthoff@bk.tudelft.nl 
KEY WORDS: Inner city, Spatial diversity, Identity of history, Conservation, Reconstruction 
ABSTRACT: 
The Industrial Revolution triggered off a considerable increase in the urban areas in Europe. After the Second World War, this 
development changed at an accelerating pace. The postwar baby boom was followed by a growing trend towards smaller family 
sizes and an increase in the use of space by individuals. The precondition for these developments was the steady economic growth in 
Europe. 
Growth took place in all sectors, bringing with it an increase in spatial scale. Consumer spending continued to grow within 
the framework of favorable economic developments. These developments were accompanied with a need for space for which 
the historic city centre did not have sufficient potential. As a result, functions moved to other premises. More space and 
better accessibility were the key motives for choosing locations other than the historic centre. 
The finemeshed spatial structure of the historic centre combined with a wide differententiation in types of ownership makes it 
difficult to impossible to fit in large-scale functions without affecting the centre’s spatial quality. 
This article addresses the choices that are now being made in Western Europe with regard to the positioning of the historic inner 
city. It also discusses the strategies employed by local governments to realize the positioning desired. These strategies are detailed in 
terms of spatial adaptations, function change and required investments. Specific attention is paid to the question: To what extent will 
smallness of scale and wide spatial diversity in historic centres be preserved? 
THE PEOPLE OF EUROPE 
The world now has over six thousand million inhabitants and it 
will become even more crowded in the decades to come. The 
main growth factor is the high number of births, primarily in the 
Third World. In Europe, more people currently die each year 
than are bom. This is chiefly an outcome of the low average 
number of births per woman and extended life expectancy. A 
population decline is not however evident in all European 
countries. This is because of international migration. The size 
and composition of the population have roots in the past and 
determine the future. A ‘greying’ society with an increasing 
average population age is the inevitable result practically all 
over the globe. Europe is a trendsetter in this area. It appears 
that a number of demographic differences are growing narrower 
across Europe, while others will almost certainly persist for 
decades ahead. 
The population is ageing (figure 1) owing to the combined 
effect of lower fertility and rising life expectancy. Population 
ageing is currently characteristic of more developed countries, 
but in the near future the phenomenon will become a global one. 
Some 16 percent of world population is expected to be aged 65 
or more by 2050. The outcome of this trend will in the long run 
be a decline in world population. This will happen when 
average family size has diminished and population ageing has 
progressed to such an extent that the 
worldwide death rate exceeds the worldwide birth rate. A global 
decline of world population is not predicted, however, until near 
the end of the 21 st century. 
Population of Europe 
□ 2000 ■ 2030 
0-20 20-40 40-60 >60 
age group 
Figure 1 Population of Europe now and in the future according 
the the base line scenario (15 countries of the European Union, 
source Eurostat) 
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