CIP A 2003 XIX 11 ' International Symposium, 30 September - 04 October, 2003, Antalya, Turkey 
GROWING MOBILITY, PHYSICAL AND 
VIRTUAL 
Computer technology is taking Western society by storm, 
reducing our dependence on time and space. Communication 
and the supply of services can take place asynchronously, 
twenty-four hours a day, to suit the individual's needs. 
Unlimited virtual mobility is within reach. If he so wishes, 
every individual can be located and contacted at any time, 
regardless of where he is. 
The apparently unlimited growth in virtual mobility should lead 
to a proportional decrease in physical mobility. The need to 
move from one place to another is vanishing. It might be 
thought possible for everything to be arranged, controlled and 
experienced from the intelligent, 'full-service' home, but this 
turns out not to be the case. The quality of experience 'within 
the home', physically remote from the thing experienced, turns 
out to be completely inadequate. The increase in the amount of 
free time and the increase in facilities for spending that free time 
resulting from the computer-supported asynchronous 24-hour 
society will lead to a significant growth in physical mobility. 
The need to travel may have disappeared, but the desire to travel 
is still very much present. 
Historical data suggests that throughout the world personal 
income and traffic volume grow in tandem. The annual distance 
travelled per capita by car, bus, train or aircraft ('motorised 
mobility', or 'traffic volume') increases in roughly the same 
proportion as average income. In 1960 the average North 
American earned $9,600 and travelled 12,000 kilometres (7,460 
miles); by 1990 both per capita income and traffic volume had 
approximately doubled. Research by, for example, Andreas 
Schafer (Massachusetts Insitute of Technology) has shown that 
the time people spend on travel is more or less constant. 
The big question however is whether the trend observed over 
recent decades can properly be projected over decades to come. 
It could be argued that the impact of ICT development has been 
great enough to break the trend. 
Paul Peters has compared human and animal relocation 
behaviour. He argues that to explain human relocation 
behaviour a model should be constructed based on the positive 
and negative utility of relocation, where utility is measured in 
terms of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. In what follows a 
number of aspects of mobility will be considered taking the 
same approach. 
Until recently people who were travelling were difficult or 
impossible to reach for the purposes of communication. This 
element of dissatisfaction or inconvenience probably had a 
significant influence on relocation behaviour. The introduction 
of the mobile telephone and the phenomenal success of e-mail 
have virtually eliminated this inconvenience. These 
developments led to radical changes in the 1990s, sufficient to 
indicate a break in the trend. 
In recent decades, and even before, economic activity was 
firmly tied to a specific location. The blue-collar worker had to 
work in a factory or workshop. Even in the service sector, in 
office work, until recently presence at the workplace was the 
main criterion for work done. Of course in the agricultural 
sector production is by definition tied to a specific location. 
In Europe the service sector continues its rapid growth in 
parallel with a decrease in the industrial and agricultural sector. 
Social developments have led to work effort being measured 
less by presence and more by performance. This fact, combined 
with developments in ICT, has reduced the extent to which 
labour is tied to a particular geographical location or indeed to a 
particular time. We find ourselves at the beginning of a period 
of rapid development which can itself be seen as a break in the 
trend. 
Computer technology is taking over Western society and in due 
course will raise the European's physical mobility to a level 
much higher than today. 
Increasing physical mobility will shrink the Europe of the near 
future to the size of metropolises like Paris and London in the 
19th century. 
The Europeans of today and tomorrow are less tight to the city 
they were bom in then our parents were. The Europeans of 
today and tomorrow are also more interested in the history of 
Europe then our parents were. Together with the growth of the 
action radius the scope of interest in history is growing. In that 
context the historic city centre is getting more attention then 
before. 
DEVELOPMENTS IN SPACE CONSUMPTION 
In Europe the average size of household has decreased 
significantly. In 1960 the average size of a European household 
still ranged between 3.0 and 3.5. By 1990 these figures had 
fallen to 2.5 - 3.0. Today in most European inner cities the 
average household size is less than two. Suppose that in the 
coming decades, i.e. within the time horizon of those planning 
Europe's future, the average number of residents per European 
home falls from 2.5 to 2.0. If the size of the population remains 
unchanged this will mean a requirement for more than 30 
million new homes. 
The task of urban reorganisation will be at least as large. A great 
deal of building was done in the post-war period to make good 
the damage done by the war. This was followed by a period of 
building to provide space for the rapid increase in the size of 
Europe's population. The post-war baby boom is responsible for 
today's rapidly ageing population. 
Of course this expansion and reorganisation of European real 
estate will not be limited to housing. All sorts of other urban 
facilities, shops, hospitals, schools, offices etc. will require 
extension and renewal as, finally, will the urban infrastructure 
which establishes the conditions for interaction between all the 
various urban elements. 
In the service economy of the future, workers involved in 
knowledge-based activities will be very well represented. 
Labour and capital, the traditional factors affecting production, 
will be increasingly dependent on specialised knowledge. The 
part played by specialised knowledge in product design and 
production processes will continue to grow. Computer 
assistance will mean that work related to knowledge-intensive 
professions will be less and less dependent on time and 
location. 8 
Rural areas are increasingly losing their original function. Cities 
are becoming more and more 'clogged up'. The amount of space 
required by the European population continues to grow rapidly. 
The problem of space, combined with developments in the field 
of virtual and physical mobility, is forcing Europe towards a 
break in the trend to urbanisation. Continuing urbanisation has 
always been a feature of European history, however far back 
one looks. The reasons for this are to be found in the nature and 
structure of the organisation of employment and in the logistic 
conditions required for the distribution of goods and services. In 
the present and future social and economic context, spatial 
considerations mean that more extensive urbanisation is not an 
option. Other ways must be found to satisfy the population’s 
ever-increasing demand for space instead of simply extending 
the size of the urban area.