ISPRS, Vol.34, Part 2W2, "Dynamic and Multi-Dimensional GIS", Bangkok, May 23-25, 2001
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Historically, most methods for estimating areal and gridded
precipitation from point data have fallen into three major
groups. They are graphical, topographical, and numerical
methods. Graphical methods involve mapping of precipitation
data, sometimes in combination with precipitation-elevation
analyses, and include isohyet mapping [2;3] and Thiessen
polygon estimation [4] . Topographical methods involve the
correlation of pointprecipitation data with an array of
topographic and synoptic parameters such as slope, exposure,
elevation, location of barriers, and wind speed and direction.
Over the past decade, the most commonly used precipitation
distribution methods have been numerical. These are
interpolation procedures in which a numerical function,
developed or prescribed, is used to weight irregularly spaced
point data to estimate a regularly spaced prediction grid.
Various studies have been carried out using numerical
interpolation method to analyze corelationship between rainfall
and topography factors in rainfall estimation such as inverse -
distance weighting interpolation, Shepard's weighted
interpolation and optimum interpolation method. Among
several methods for estimating rainfall using points data, can
be concluded that geostatiscal methods (including Kriging and
Cokriging) were superior to others. Kriging is a geostatistical
approach that has gained acceptance as a tool for the
interpolation of many types of data , including precipitation. A
potential drawback of kriging is that it implicity relies on the
data to directly represent the spatial variability of the actual
precipitation field. If the data are not representative (as is often
the case in complex terrain), the accuracy of the resulting
interpolated field will be in question. In addition, more than one
semivariogram (numerical function) may be needed to
estimate precipitation at various time periods for which the
processes producing the precipitation patterns differ.
Recently, elevationally detrended kriging and cokriging with
elevation as a covariate have been used to bring topographic
influences into the calculations [2]. The resulting precipitation
fields often show more topographically related spatial patterns
in complex terrain than those from ordinary kriging. However
the application is limited to areas characterized by a strong,
overall precipitation-elevation relationship (i.e. regions
dominated by one main orographic regime).
2.2 Current Development of GIS Technology in Rainfall
Estimation
The demand for climatological precipitation fields on a regular
grid is growing dramatically as ecological and hydrological
models become increasingly linked to geographic information
systems (GIS) that spatially represent and manipulate model
output. GIS provide an array of interpolation techniques in
which point estimates of rainfall are converted onto a
rectangular surface. These techniques are based on
integration of GIS tools with the interpolation procedures in
which a numerical function, developed or prescribed, is used
to weight irregularly spaced point data to estimate a regularly
spaced prediction grid. Here, grid refers to a two - dimensional
array of regularly spaced grid cells. A grid cell refers to a
single pixel that has dimensions equivalent to the resolution of
the grid. A value assigned to a pixel, such as rainfall estimate,
is positioned at the cell center. However, it is not a point
value; rather, it represents an average value over the entire
cell. Examples of these techniques are: (1) the Thiessen
polygon method of ARC/INFO system which is based on the
Thiessen polygon estimation [4] which is a polynomial
interpolation. Thiessen polygons are used to model or
approximate the zones of influence around points in Thiessen
interpolation method , (2) Kriging method of ARC/INFO . It
interpolates a lattice from a set of variably - spaced points
using Kriging which is an advanced geostatistical procedure
that generates an estimated surface from a scattered set of
points with z (rainfall) values. Recently GIS is also employed in
the processing of Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler
(WSR-88D) radar reflectivity data in NEXRAD program. Here,
GIS plays an important role in the management and
processing of radar estimates of rainfall . WSR-88D radar
rainfall estimates are an important new source of spatial
rainfall rate for distributed hydrologic models. Since hydrologic
models are GIS integrated, the native resolution of the WSR-
88D radar data, which is in radial coordinates, must be
resample into a georeferenced coordinate system in the GIS.
Thus, a key aspect of GIS processing is the resolution of the
rainfall estimates derived from radar. It is used both for data
ingest and for hydrologic modeling. The ingest, processing,
scale and resolution of WSR-88D radar data in hydrologic
simulations can be managed using the raster GIS.
3. RAINFALL ESTIMATION SYSTEM
3.1 Conceptual Framework
A conceptual framework is incorporated to address the
analysis of corelationship of rainfall with an array of
topography parameters to derive the best fitted multiple linear
regression equation as the optimal model. It consists of four
components as shown in Figure 3-1:
Figure 3-1: The Conceptual Framework of GIS-based
Rainfall Estimation System
a. Database.
The study of spatial correlationship of rainfall with topographic
parameters involves spatial data and analysis. Thus, it is
important to develop a database consisting of spatial and non-
spatial data as required by the system development.
b. Mathematical Model
It consists of statistical and graphical analysis which studies
spatial correlationship of individual topography parameter with
rainfall, and regression analysis which investigates the effects
of topography parameter in the presence of others to derive
the best fitted multiple linear regression equation. The model
development involves spatial and regression analysis
attempting to find the optimal rainfall estimation model. The
procedure is to interpolate from the surrounding points taking
into account topography effects on rainfall. Its stages of
development are listed as follows: