It became obvious that this type of research and development requires a lot of
effort and above all the cooperation of productive organisations, in order to obtain
the vast amount of statistical information necessary to derive significant models.
The author must now confess, that due to reasons beyond.his control, not much
further development of the research project could be achieved in the period between
the Symposium of Comm. IV at Delft and the XII Congress of ISP at Ottawa.
The ITC has moved its premises from Delft to Enschede and has had no access to a
suitable computer in this period. The work on this project was thus only resumed
early in 1972.
The decision to present state of affairs to the Congress of ISP is governed by the
following considerations and objectives:
A discussion of the problem will contribute valuable ideas and information for
the further development. It should furthermore assist in spreading the conviction
of the necessity for a more systematic approach to planning and thereby increase
the willingness of other organisations to contribute information and to
participate in the development in future.
1.2. Scope of the paper
In addition to the foregoing historical review, a list of objectives will be
presented which can hopefully be achieved by further research work. In paragraph 2,
the second part of the above-mentioned Symposium paper, dealing with the problem
of the analysis of the design of optimal procedures, will be presented again in
a slightly revised form. This is intended for reference purposes only, as probably
only à small number of congress participants are in the possession of ihe original
paper. :
Finally, in paragraph 3, a plan of operation for the further research work is
developed, which should form a basis for the discussion and might possibly lead
to decisions concerning the organisational aspects of the required cooperation of
both research and production organisations.
1.3. Objectives of research
The problem analysis, which is only in a very general form at present, has to be
worked out in more detail. Special attention has to be paid to the general
establishment of the performance and cost models. Furthermore it will be necessary
tó deal with the stochastic characteristics of the system and to develop means to
incorporate them in the decision- and optimisation problem.
The proble
a) À sys
progr
of.g
b) A cor
The object
by the ITC
-Evaluati
and circ
—Establis
and circ
-—Establis
differe:
—Identif:
—Identif:
-As a CO!
specifi
—Sensitiv.
factors
—Investi
and the
— And, la
aid for
Finally, n
derived bj
uncertain!
to be more
really coı