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Given a breach location or a location where over-topping takes place along the embankments of the Panaro River and a 
value for the discharge from the breach, predictions can be made with respect to flood propagation. The model is 
essentially deterministic, however, due to lack of validation possibilities (calibration and validation will per definition be 
impossible for future conditions), it should be regarded as conceptual. The dynamic model was developed with the PC 
Raster Dynamic Modelling Package (Van Deursen & Wesseling, 1997). 
2 STUDY AREA: GEOGRAPHIC, GEOMORPHOLOGIC AND GEOLOGIC OUTLINE 
The Castelfranco Emilia area is located in the 
southern central sector of the Po Plain which is 
the most extensive plain in Italy (approximately 
46,000 km”, corresponding to 71% of all the 
plain areas and 15% of Italy). 
  
The study area is situated in a temperate climatic 
zone (Type Cfa of Köppen’s classification). 
From the pluviometric viewpoint the study area 
has an annual average rainfall of about 700 mm, 
with seasonal peaks concentrated in the fall and 
spring (about 250 mm), and minimum values in 
the summer (about 150 mm). 
The Panaro River has a total length of 148 km 
and a catchment basin of 1,784 km?, (Idroser, 
1988). This river collects water from the central 
section of the Emilian Apennines (the mountain- 
basin extends over an area of 1035 km?). At the 
point where it flows on to the plain formed a 
large alluvial fan (remains of older fans appear at 
the foot of the Apennines; Gasperi et al., 1989) 
and, after a 85 km long course through the Po 
Plain it reach the Po River as the lowermost 
right-hand tributary. 
   
  
    
    
  
  
S. Cesdrió 
sul Panaro 
  
  
In the study area the Panaro River flows from 500m 
  
  
  
  
south to north about 2 km to the west of Figure 1. Location of the study area. 1) Municipality of 
Castelfranco Emilia and about 4 km to the east of Castelfranco Emilia, 2) built up area, 3) main road, 4) railway 
Modena. In this area it shows two distinct sectors track, 5), 6), 7) alternatives tracks of the high speed railway 
with quite different geomorphologic ^ project, 8) flow regulation system, 9) fluvial scarp. 
Characteristics: at the north of Castelfranco 
Emilia it flows as hanging river within artificial levees whereas at the south it flows deepened in the alluvial deposits. 
The present morphological patterns of the Panaro river bed at the south of Castelfranco was defined in relatively recent 
times, starting from about 1950. Prior to 1950, it was a bed at the level of the surrounding plain and filled with gravelly 
material. Extraction of gravelly material for technological use (construction, roads, etc.) has triggered erosion and has 
resulted in a lowering of the bed levels by as much as 9 m in some spots (Pellegrini ef al., 1979; Castaldini & Piacente, 
1999). 
  
The hydrologic regime of the Panaro River is characterised by two very similar peaks in the spring (March-April) and in 
the fall (November), and a minimum in the summer (August). The watercourse has had variable flow-rates in time, 
although without showing particular trends. The mean flow-rate values in the 1951-1980 period have been calculated 
taking the river section west of Castelfranco Emilia as reference point: the value thus obtained is 21,2 m3/s (Idroser, 
1988). 
The superficial alluvial deposits in the study area are Holocene in age; their particle-size distribution ranges from gravel 
to clay. 
According to subsurface geologic data (Pieri & Groppi, 1981), the study tract of the Panaro River lies on the “Emilia- 
Romagna Folds” which are a continuation of the Apennine chain in the subsoil of the Po Plain. 
  
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXIII, Part B7. Amsterdam 2000. 229