lyzed
iputs,
omic
erent
npact
and
k for
this
a thé
roach
roach
ith a
vides
crete
and
lable
links
oh a
e
Wise
| user
p the
‘hese
vork,
ourth
ents)
n the
f the
work
stem
ctual
after
tep it
pport
yrmal
ch a
base,
arise
To
ser is
OCIO-
also
‘imp,
and
es in
IAPRS & SIS, Vol.34, Part 7, “Resource and Environmental Monitoring”, Hyderabad, India,2002
order to identify the stakeholders using the resource. The steps
that follow guide the user to think in a systematic way to
formulate land use policies and to compare the impacts of
different strategies.
2.4 Interactive specification of Objectives and Criteria
The DSS through its interface, allows the user to interactively
formulate objectives and select the criteria which will allow the
strategies to be evaluated in more specific and quantitative
terms. The user is allowed to select the criteria that can be
actually computed through the computational framework.
User Interface stepwise approach ]
ND UNES
Problems
Issues
Objectives |
Criteria N
| Scenarios
Le XR
— | Strategies {| Natural System Application (system j
IE, | i models use) models !
[T Iu UT i
4 | Analysis |» :
i t —— -
( LL
F —Evaluat yr
"| Evaluation Models (e.g. MCA-tools)
t
J
Conceptual
framework
Computational Framework
i
—
Database
i
Preparing for
bp
XY ¥
N
i
e
NS o
Case for Analysis
——
the analysis
Analysis
1i
Figure 2. Link between the conceptual framework and
computational framework
The overall objective of the study is to “optimize use of land
resources for shrimp-paddy cultivation within the study area”.
In order to achieve this ultimate objective, the user can
concentrate on some or all of the criteria listed in Table 1 that
are elaborations of the three national policy objectives of
‘economic growth’, ‘social well-being’ and ‘environmental
integrity’ in accordance with the Fifth Five Year Plan (FFYP,
1997).
25 Scenarios or exogenous developments
In this DSS, four different fresh water flows or discharges from
the Gorai River are presented as possible scenarios (0 m3/sec,
60 m3/sec, 100 m3/sec and 150 m3/sec) The water
management options, which may establish these different
flows, are considered to be outside management control and as
such would be an exogenous development. The user may select
one of the four scenarios to evaluate the impacts of different
strategies. Increased fresh water flow from the Gorai River
would push down the salinity frontiers in the study area and
may result in more land being profitable for paddy cultivation
or the cultivation of Golda shrimp instead of Bagda shrimp.
Depending on the freshwater flow, areas under the different
salinity classes would change and the impact of the land use
policy on the criteria would vary. Hence, the analysis would
show how the impact of a strategy changes with the Gorai flow
scenario.
2.6 Interactive specification of strategies or
management options
The strategies considered in the context of this study restrict .
paddy and shrimp cultivation to specific areas. One strategy is
to allocate land to different production regimes. This is done as
presented in Table 2. The table shows the base case (1999)
landuse under each salinity regime. The user can interactively
change the allocations in percentages. A strategy that intends to
maximize agricultural production can, for example, bring all the
suitable lands under paddy cultivation by replacing any existing
shrimp cultivation as shown in Table 3, and making landuse
allocation as per Table 4. A balanced land use, on the other
hand, may include allocations such as that shown in Table 4.
All the Aman-Boro land is shifted to Golda-Boro land use in
order to increase shrimp production, thereby reducing paddy
production. In order to somewhat mitigate this effect, all the
Bagda-Bagda land, which is environmentally damaging, may
be shifted to the Bagda-Aman regime. The Aman floodplain is
kept as it is in order to retain the capture fisheries production.
Economic growth
Regional income
Foreign currency earning
Employment
Net economic return
Sum of wages, profit and land rent received by the region.
Foreign currency income of the country from shrimp export.
Total employment (male and female) generated in the region.
Gross return less total cost. It is an indicator of economic efficiency.
Social well-being
Nutrition
Sanitation
Education
Housing
Public health
Unskilled job opportunities
Female work opportunities
Access to common
properties
Access to small holdings
Nutrition value of total rice paddy and fish production.
Degree of access to fresh water on the surface.
Opportunities for education resulting from different types of production activities.
Vulnerability of housing structures under the different types of inundation required for different types of production
activities.
Degree of risk of the population from exposure to inundated conditions.
Total job opportunities for unskilled labor in the study area.
Total job opportunities for women in the study area.
Degree of access to floodplain fishing and grazing areas. Aman floodplain provides the maximum access to such
activities.
Degree of access for small land holding operations under different crop production regimes. Area under paddy
production provides the most access for such operations.
Environmental Integrity
Aquatic bio-diversity
Terrestrial bio-diversity
Mangrove bio-diversity
Soil condition
Groundwater salinity
Health of aquatic eco-system of the region. Area of rivers, beels or waterbodies and floodplains in different salinity
regimes are influencing factors. Aquatic bio-diversity is best in the mid salinity regime.
Health of terrestrial eco-system. Area of vegetation (settlement and others) is indicative of terrestrial eco-system.
Terrestrial eco-system is the most productive in fresh water, or lowest (<5ppt) salinity regime.
Areas of mangrove multiplied by weights, which varies according to salinity. Mangrove is the most productive in the
5-10ppt salinity range.
Deterioration of soil productivity resulting from different production regimes. It depends upon area under bagda
production and salinity.
Threat to coastal aquifers. Depends upon area under Boro production, which uses groundwater as irrigation water.
Table 1. List of criteria
555
