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International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Vol XXXV, Part B7. Istanbul 2004
economic data, land use zoning status, and land use suitability.
Based on these scenarios, and on the actual land use types at the
start of the forecasting period, the model then predicts the likely
future development of land use development, for each year over
the next twenty years. In order to compare the alternative
predicted land use maps produced by the model, in terms of the
long-term sustainability of the input land use planning and
management parameters, various indicators — including those
describing landscape fragmentation — are computed and
analysed.
Currently, the MOLAND urban and regional growth model is
being calibrated for MOLAND's extensive Europe-wide
network of cities and regions, using the MOLAND land use and
transport databases, as well as the ancillary data-sets acquired
from local authorities. The latest version of the model also
incorporates data describing the socio-economic properties of
the area, and will be used to simulate the interactions between
the cities and their surrounding regions. This so-called “macro-
model” is being tested on the four new “extended” MOLAND
study areas, where extensive regional changes in land use are
likely to occur as a result of major economic and infrastructural
developments (e.g. the Dresden-Prague transport corridor).
Suitability Zoning 1
(indudes DEM, (master plans, Accessibility
economics etc.) legislation) {transport net work)
Land use 1998 Transition Future
& CA- Rules Potentials Land use
| Time Loop |
Figure 10: Example of an iterative procedure by interactive
analyses with Moland data
6 CONCLUSIONS
The issues dealt with by MOLAND require a concrete and
active involvement of regional and local authorities. This is for
two main reasons.
* In the field of Regional policy the subsidiarity principle
reaches its full dimension: local/regional bodies implement
with almost full autonomy directives and measures for
regional developments decided by the EC. This is
particularly true for structural funds related to urban and
local infrastructure (ports, airport etc.) and for the
application of SEA at local/regional level. The debate has
also been at the centre of the ESDP, and will have to be
solved in the establishment of ESPON.
* From a purely technical point of view, only at the adequate
local level is there a need for information to fully assess
and analyse the impact of measures taken or planned.
789
In the frame of the activities of the project, particular efforts
have been dedicated to establish links and contacts with
national, regional and local authorities. These contacts have
resulted in formal collaborations either following already
established mechanisms in the EC (such the Working Groups in
DG ENV, projects funded in the INTERREG Programme, the
5" RTD Frame-work Programme, etc.) or establishing bi-lateral
agreements.
An active collaboration has been initiated with EUROCITIES
(originated in the frame of the working groups set by DG ENV)
to network cities and local administration. This will result in a
series of proposals for thematic network to the EC, in which the
partner-cities will aim to adopt as much as possible of the
MOLAND methodology.
The ‘instrument’ to formally set up a large thematic network on
the issue of urban (and regional) sustainable development is
provided by the European Research Area which will drive the
research activities of the European Commission. It s essential to
extend the scope of such network to ‘institutional users’ (e.g
=
local administration, EC services etc.) and to institutes and
organisations with a specialisation and tradition in the various
fields related to the “urban affaire”.
7 REFERENCES
- Project web site: http://moland jrc.it
- Bittermann W. and Haberl H., 1998. landscape-relevant
indicators for pressures on the environment. Innovation, 11
(1): 87-104.
- Demicheli L: /ndicators of sustainable development. Invited
speech at the Sustainable Information Society Conference.
Kouvola, Finland, 27 — 28 September 2001.
- Kasanko M., Lavalle C., Demicheli L., McCormick N.,
Niederhuber M: The MOLAND method as a decision-
making support tool in urban management. Second
International Conference on Decision making in Urban and
Civil Engineering. Lyon, France, 20 — 22 November 2000.
- Lavalle C., Demicheli L. McCormick N: European Common
Indicators and GIS/spatial aspects. European Common
Indicators Workshop. Seville, Spain, 5 — 6 October 2000.
- Demicheli L., Lavalle C., Casals Carrasco P., Turchini M:
Monitoring non European mega-cities: the MOLAND
approach. ESF/N-Aerus Annual Workshop. Geneva, Palais
des Nations - May 3-6, 2000.
- Lavalle C., Demicheli L., Niederhuber M: Where cities are
going? A territorial outlook. ESF/N-Aerus Annual
Workshop. Geneva, Palais des Nations - May 3-6, 2000.
- Pátíková A, Kemper G., Lavalle, C. (2000): monitoring urban
dynamics for Bratislava in 1949 — 1997, ISPRS- Amsterdam
- Lavalle C., Demicheli L., Turchini M., Casals Carrasco P.,
Niederhuber M., 2001: Monitoring mega cities: the
MURBANDY/MOLAND approach. Development in
Practice, 11 (2-3), 350-357.
- Altan, O., Kemper, G., Pátíková, A., Lavalle, C. (2001)
Monitoring Land-Use change of the city of greater Istanbul,
(Regensburger Geographische Schriften 35, Regensburg).
- Kemper, G., Altan, O., Pátíková, A., Lavalle, C. (2001)
Monitoring Landuse change of the city of greater Istanbul,
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