International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XXXIX-B4, 2012
XXII ISPRS Congress, 25 ust —
Figure 6: Example of a costal area at the Marmara Seaside SE
of Istanbul in the year 1945 (left) and in the Year 2000 (right)
5. TRENDS AND AXES OF THE
DEVELOPMENT
Agricultural areas
Industrial, nommarrial À transport services
& Natural areas (forests, wetlands, etc.)
Green urban areas
Wale buddies (wilhuul sua)
aca
Figure 7: Estimated development up to the year 2020 by
combined polynomial and linear regressions with smoothing
and balancing to the total size
The shown trend analyses up to the year 2020 are based on a
combination of a polynomial regression and a linear regression.
Like seen in the past, the development of the 3 most changing
groups, agricultural land, residential and business surface, did
not went linear. The calculated values have been related to the
size of the project area and to the more linear groups like
forestry and water bodies. The trend however is a speculation
but shows quite impressive the future of Istanbul. It fits also to
the estimated trends of published statistics for the population
grow. 14.5 Mio inhabitants are estimated from the water
management Institute, that’s about 45% more than in the year
2000.
01 September 2012, Melbourne, Australia
11 776 475
075 31 035 10,110
455 ‚35 12,584
659 35 024 14,683
489 46 631 16,120
986 7,08 977 16,963
Table 1: The population grow estimated by the water-
management institute (ISKI 1999)
1200
10m 4
800
E 600
«0p 4
mM 4
0 SN i vd
M Industriel, |Matural areas
N Grzen urban |,
Urbcn fobric sas commercial & (fcrcat, arees
tansçot wetlands,
1345 0337 94991 5204 111-80 729
Im 1368 14130 94133 13659 35758 ann
(01388 Ju b25UU Nay 33U12 718J
ic12200 43506 3€811 369€5 30727 2C25
mn 72000 90C0 51000 32200 2€03
e trend
Figure 8: Development up to the year 2020 out of th
analysis
If we compare the population grow of 45.2% from 2000 to
2020, grow of urban fabric is with 44.3% similar however if we
increase also the population density, it could be less. The
growth of business areas counts 38%, which is realistic. If we
think where the development goes, the table 1 indicates clearly
that the Asiatic side will have a bigger increase than the
European one.
338
Inte
Figure 9: |
orientated.
6.I
As mentiot
project. Al
period thei
1700 4
600 |
500 +
400
SPRAWL IN %
300
(200 4
100
E
Ruhrgebeit
Sunderland
Dresden
|
Figure 10: 1
50 years.
Figure 10 ci
these cities.
shown, mea
oldest year.
absolute sp:
cities,
Iraklion E
Nicosia I
a
Setubal 2
>
Figure 11: al
