cen carried
vas carried
all year. It
nent as per
| for entire
Is to study
ng various
- modified
>mperature
hat runoff
'ercentage.
attributed
ightly. The
resented in
scenario is
ncrease in
crease in
of climate
1 scenarios
| presented
ng trend in
F
Table 2. Summary of runoff estimation analysis of each scenario
Increment in Rainfall (%)
Change % Change
0 5 10 15
0-5 0-10 0-15 0-5 0-10 0-15
0 281.84 309.95 338.96 368.80
28.11 57.12 86.96 9.97 20.27 30.85
278.63 306.55 335.39 365.07
27.92 56.76 86.44 10.02 20.37 31.02
2 275.43 303.18 331.83 361.33
27.75 56.40 85.90 10.08 20.48 31.19
ncrement in
Temperature
CC)
—
3 272.24 299.85 328.30 357.64
27.61 56.05 85.40 10.14 20.59 31.37
Increment in Temperature CO Change % Change
0 1 2 3 0-5 0-10 0-15 0-5 0-10 0-15
= S 0 281.84 2778.63 275.43 272.24 -3.21 -6.41 -9.60 -1.14 -2.27 -3.41
5 = 5 300.05 306.55 303.18 299.85 -3.41 -6.77 -10.11 -1.10 -2.18 -3.26
5 = 10 338.96 335.39 331.83 328.30 -3.57 -7.13 -10.66 -1.05 -2.10 -3.15
in 15 368.80 365.07 361.33 357.64 -3.73 -7.47 -11.15 -1.01 -2.02 -3.02
Table 3. Summary of ET estimation analysis of each scenario
Increment in Rainfall (%) Change % Change
0 5 10 15 0-5 0-10 0-15 0-5 0-10 0-15
g 0 704.73 | 717.63 | 729.54 | 740.61 12.90 24.81 35.88 1.83 3.52 5.09
Ê $ 5 1 7412.08 (725.371 73101 748.98 13.28 23.33 36.90 1.87 3.58 5.18
5 E 2 719.26 | 732.91 | 745.51 757.18 13.65 26.25 37.92 1.90 3.65 5.27
ze 3 726.24 | 740.25 | 753.20 | 765.18 14.01 26.96 38.94 1.93 3.71 5.36
Increment in Temperature (°C) Change % Change
0 1 2 3 0-5 0-10 0-15 0-5 0-10 0-15
ë S 0 704.73 | 712.08. 1.71026 | 72624 7.35 14.53 21.50 1.04 2.06 3.05
BE 5 71763 | 72537 | 73291 740.25 7.73 15.28 22.62 1.08 2.13 3.15
: £ 10 729.54 | 737.61 | 745.51 753.20 8.07 15.97 23.66 1.11 2:19 3.24
zu 15 740.61 748.98 | 757.18 | 765.18 8.38 16.57 24.57 1.13 2.24 3.32
6. CONCLUSIONS
In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the
impact of climate and LULC change on water resources of
India. It has been reported in literature that temperature and
rainfall may increase in India in years to come. Therefore,
different scenarios were developed with incrementing
temperature by 1°C, 2°C and 3°C; rainfall by 5%, 10%, 15%;
and combination of these two. The VIC semi-distributed macro-
scale hydrological model has been investigated for hydrological
simulation.
As a general tendency in land cover change, open forest usually
gets converted into agriculture/urban settlement, in such a case,
slight increase in runoff and corresponding decrease in ET was
predicted. Same kind of trend has been found, in case of
agriculture converts into urban/settlements.
In climatic variation scenarios, an increase in runoff and ET has
been predicted. It was observed that due to urbanisation
temperature increases, and affects the hydrology. Consequently,
results in increase in runoff, which may lead to urban flooding
also. With increase in rainfall as well as temperature, an
increasing trend in ET has been identified. The results are
encouraging for climate and LULC change point of view. The
model results will help planners in land use policy planning;
and formulating mitigation and adaptation in different land
cover and climate change scenarios.
It may also be concluded that the VIC model results in idealistic
hydrology as it takes into account a large number of parameter
influencing the process. It was realized that to study such
complex hydrological interaction between land surface and
atmosphere over a large region, it requires enormous data, in
this regard; remote sensing data may play an important role.
