(XIX-B8, 2012
International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XXXIX-B8, 2012
XXII ISPRS Congress, 25 August — 01 September 2012, Melbourne, Australia
Precursor Date of observed Prediction of Deviation value Prediction of earthquake Prediction of the radius of
iction of the radius of anomaly earthquake date (Dx) magnitude affected area (Km)
ffected area (Km) TEC 11 May 12 May - 26 May -2.59 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 10 May 11 May - 25 May -03.10 28 241.30
»41.30 10 May 11 May - 25 May -03.07 >8 >41.30
>41.30 9 May 10 May - 24 May -03.10 >8 >41.30
15.92-41.30 9 May 10 May — 24 May -2.92 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 9 May 10 May — 24 May -2.50 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 8 May 9 May — 23 May -2.69 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 8 May 9 May — 23 May -2.87 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 8 May 9 May - 23 May -2.68 7-8 15.92-41.30
241.30 2 May 3 May — 17 May -2.55 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 O* Density 10 May 11 May - 25 May -2.18 7-8 15.92-41.30
241.30 Total Ion Density 10 May 11 May - 25 May -2.28 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 Ion Density 10 May 11 May - 25 May -2.05 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 Electron Temperature 10 May 11 May - 25 May 41.98 6-7 6.14-15.92
15.92-41.30 Electron Temperature 9 May 10 May - 24 May 11.73 6-7 6.14-15.92
241.30 Electron Density 9 May 10 May - 24 May -1.86 6-7 6.14-15.92
241.30 O* Density 9 May 10 May - 24 May -2.40 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 Total Ion Density 10 May 11 May - 25 May -2.26 7-8 15.92-41.30
241.30 Electron Density 10 May 11 May - 25 May -1.70 6-7 6.14-15.92
6.14-51 Electron Density 3 May 4 May — 18 May +2.09 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 O* Density 2 May 3 May — 17 May +2.37 7-8 15.92-41.30
6.14-15.92 Total Ion Density 2 May 3 May — 17 May +2.13 7-8 15.92-41.30
6.14-15.92 Electron Temperature 2 May 3 May - 17 May -3.22 >8 241.30
15.92-41.30 Electron Temperature 1 May 2 May — 16 May +2.5 7-8 15.92-41.30
15.92-41.30 Table 5. Different precursors concerning Sichuan earthquake (Akhoondzadeh, 2011).
15.92-41.30
HS reaches 15% and 29%, on 9 and 10 May 2009, respectively 4. CONCLUSIONS
15.92-41.30 i ; ru
1592 (Table 5). The variations of electron density also indicate an
increase of the order of 39%, from the normal state on 3 May In order to detect disturbed states that might be associated to
2009 which is acknowledged by an anomaly in the total ion impending earthquake, the variations of different earthquake
density of the order of 42%, at -22:30 LT, on 2 May 2009 precursors regarding the three earthquakes have been analyzed
>15.92 (Table 5). According to this anomaly an earthquake with a in this study. It should be pointed out that one of the aims of
magnitude between 7 and 8 would have been happened this study is to integrate capabilities of the different earthquake
between 3 and 17 May 2009 and the radius of affected area precursors in appropriately detection of actual earthquake
varies between 15.92 and 41.30 Km. The characteristics of anomalies. For each precursor the date, magnitude and radius
21592 other detected anomalies can be found in Table 5. The of affected area parameters concerning the impending
integration of earthquake parameters retrieved from different earthquake were estimated. By integrating the earthquake
precursors indicates that an earthquake with a magnitude parameters resulted from all precursors the final earthquake
21595 between 7 and 8 would have been happened between 12 and 20 parameters were estimated. In Samoa and Sichuan earthquakes
May 2009. The radius of affected area is estimated to be the estimated date of impending earthquake coincides exactly
between 15.92 and 41.30 Km. with registered date of earthquake (Table 7). It can be related to
the different precursors (i.e. 14 and 6 precursors for Samoa and
Sichuan cases, respectively) analyzed in these studied cases. It
215.92 3.3 Borujerd, Iran earthquake means that the number and diversity of earthquake precursors
can be leaded to precise estimation of earthquake parameters.
Occurrence of more than 130 strong earthquakes (My, > 7.5) in The low number of precursors in case of Bourujerd has been
the past centuries and almost daily earthquakes of magnitude resulted to low precise estimation of earthquake parameters
2.36-6.14 3.0 in Iran makes it as a severe earthquake prone region. In (Table 7). It should be point out that earthquake anomaly can
Borujerd, an earthquake with a magnitude M=6.1 took place be hidden in the high magnetic activity periods. Therefore only
have been happened
responding data with
corded by DEMETER
e 5. The transition in
occurs at ~10:30 LT,
-24%. It reaches its
the earthquake (Table
gnitude greater than 8
id 24 May 2009. Such
emperature variations,
undisturbed state
at 01:17:01 LT on 31 Mar 2006 (see. Table 3). The LST
variations exceed the predefind bounds on 25 March 2006
(Saradjian and Akhoondzadeh, 2010). These anomaly indicates
that an earthquake of magnitude around 6 would have been
happened between 26 Mar and 10 Apr 2005. The IAP
experiement measurements indicate that total ion density
reaches to its maximum value on 30 Mar 2006 and that ion
temperature exceeds the lower bound on 29 Mar 2006 (Table 6)
(Akhoondzadeh, 2011). By inspection of predicted parameters
obtained from different precursors, it is predicted that an
earthquake of magnitude between 6 and 7 would have been
happened between 01 and 08 Apr 2006.
the pre-seismic plasma anomalies in geomagnetic quiet periods
have been investigated in this study. However, it is necessary to
take into account that the ionosphere has complicated behavior
even under quiet geomagnetic condition and the measured
parameters sometimes display variations in quiet seismic
condition that can be associated to other unknown factors. The
seismic anomalies represented in this paper are promising for
the short term prediction but attention has to be paid that
further investigation is required to obtain a very accurate
regional model of quiet time for lithosphere, atmosphere and
ionosphere to discriminate seismic precursors from the
background of daily variations.
