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DESIGN OF AGRICULTURAL DISASTER EVALUATION SYSTEM BASED ON GIS, SIMULATION AND 
EXPERT-SYSTEM TECHNIQUES 
Zhu Zesheng, Sun Ling 
Nanjing Navy Institute of Electronic Engineering, Nanjing, JiangSu, 210017, P. R. China 
JiangSu Academy Of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, JiangSu, 210014, P. R. China 
Commission VII, Working Group 7 
KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Management, GIS, Project 
ABSTRACT 
The agricultural industry is more complex, dynamic, and competitive. Agricultural disaster evaluation system( ADES) 
has become an important tool and technology in modern agricultural production. However, how to design such system 
has been being a very important and complex problem with the help of advanced information processing, techniques 
such as GIS, simulation and expert system. In this paper, we present a new method for the design and implementation 
of ADES. this method is based on a new layered architecture model which is used to design and implement complex 
ADES. The model integrated reasonably GIS, simulation models and expert system in ADES and simplified its design 
and implementation. Otherwise, an excellent commercial GIS environment was used as a tool for the integration. 
ADES provides a number of important information and decisions for senior managers of agricultural production as 
well as plays a very important role in the production. Finally, we discuss a typical application of ADES in dangerous 
weather disaster warning of stored grain management. 
1. INTRODUCTION 
Today, the agricultural industry is more complex, 
dynamic and competitive. Many factors such as biology, 
weather, disaster, economics and market influence 
interactively this business(Liang, 1986). In recent years, 
Agricultural Disaster Evaluation System(ADES) has 
been being widely researched and fast developed, in 
which it not only is playing a more important role, but 
also has become a very important tool of production 
management in modern agricultural production. 
However, how to reasonably apply various existent 
information processing techniques for designing and 
implementing excellent performance ADES has been a 
very important and interesting problem in field of 
agricultural production management. Unfortunately, 
ADES design and implementation is also a very complex 
and difficult problem for most of agricultural 
applications. Major reason resulting in the situation is 
that ADES must process a lot of information relevant to 
agricultural disasters(especially including some random 
or undetermined information) and provide precise 
decision information for ADES users. Otherwise, 
another reason includes that the work to build ADES 
model for implementing satisfactory ADES is also very 
difficult. Thus, the number of existent ADES” not only is 
much limited, but those ADES function, quality and 
performance are usually unsatisfactory in many 
applications of agricultural disaster evaluation. However, 
our research on ADES shown that a new effective 
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method for designing and implementing ADES that 
satisfies the performance required by user can be used to 
solve the above problems and overcome the relevant 
difficulties. Further, the new method provides really an 
approach to building excellent performance ADES 
model. Then, the model supports fast and reasonable 
implementation of ADES. 
In this paper, we present this new method of building 
ADES model or ADES. This method includes three key 
information processing techniques such as geographic 
information  system(GIS), simulation and expert 
system(ES) techniques. Really, they are also the most 
important techniques for implementing excellent 
performance ADES. The ADES based on this method 
not only makes use of advantages of those techniques as 
more as possible, but also has much better performance 
and more users than existent ADES. 
2. ADES ARCHITECTURE MODEL 
One of the most important tasks to design ADES is 
carefully to determine its various function parts and to 
build the logical relationship between those parts, so that 
those parts and relationship are used to construct ADES 
architecture model. However, in practical applications, 
ADES involves decision-making based on complex 
interactions between people, pests, lands, crops, natural 
disasters, and other natural resources relevant to 
agricultural disasters. Modeling these interactions and 
representing them in ADES for supporting decision 
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXI, Part B7. Vienna 1996