2. METHODOLOGY 
2.1 Research Flow 
In this research, there are five major sections in the model 
shown in Fig. These are feed back by the amount of the 
CO2 exhaust, CO2 exhaust due to wood consumption, 
CO2 exhaust due to food consumption, CO2 exhaust due to 
population and CO2 exhaust due to energy consumption. 
These are modeled using system dynamic model. 
Moreover, two cases concerning the forecast of the future 
amount of fossil fuel-use and the ratio of fossil fuel-use 
ARB_NPP 
F:CO2 
E CNS 
E_CNS_CAP 
COAL CNS 
OIL. CNS 
GAS CNS 
  
  
  
: Net primary productivity per lha 
cultivated land 
: Amount of CO2 exhaust due to 
food consumption 
; Amount of energy consumption 
: Amount of energy consumption 
per capita 
: Amount of coal consumption 
. Amount of oil consumption 
: Amount of natural gas 
consumption 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
wiil beestablished. The amount of CO2 exhaust for each Q.D. Y, : CO2 exhaust coefficient according 
case in the future andthe population capacity are evaluated. to each source of energy 
LE CO2 : Amount of CO2 exhaust due to 
2.2 Definition of Variables energy consumption 
Each vanable used by this research is as follows: FW_CNS ; Amount of wood-use for fuel 
RW PRD . Amount of log production 
t : Time FW_ENS_CAP : Amount of wood-use for fuel per 
d : Time period capita 
POP : Population RW PRD CAP : Amount of log production per 
BIRTH : Number of births capita 
DEATH : Number of the deaths WD VLM : Number of trees that can be used 
F_CNS : Amount of food consumption S tha of forest 
F:CNS CAP : Amount of food consumption per DN ET productivity per diiaol 
Ores 
capita af S 
t : aa Vice? à : xh 
F.EXP, F IMP . Amount of foodimport and export FK Ree o GO SEN ducto 
PRD HA . Amount of food production per Bon eo oo oy Ye 
: LU CO2 . Amount of CO2 exhaust due to 
I ha cultivated land 
land-use change 
Population 
Wood » Energy 
E Food nene) | 
pre Saree m Sector 
, Sector Y 
Energy 
Fire wood Food Consumption C 
consumption onsumption 
v 
y 
Round wood * Ener 
Production Deforestation By 
| Consumption 
Y y Y 
Emission CO, by CO2 Emission CO2 Emission 
Firewood Consumption and 
LUC though Deforestation 
Y 
>| Sum of CO, Emission Je 
by human activity 
Fig.1. Simulation Model 
416 International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII, Part 7, Budapest, 1998 
  
con 
Fig 
. due 
1). 
pop 
(2) 
Due 
At t 
the | 
whe 
whe