per lha
due to
nption
nption
tion
on
ccording
due to
uel
i
uel per
1 per
ve used
or I ha of
due to
due to
2.3 Prediction of Population
The population is obtained from equation (1) by using the
number of births!" and the numbers of the deaths *!.
POP(t)=POP(t-dt)+BIRTH(t)-DEATH(t) - - - - (1)
2.4 Prediction of the Amount of CO2 Exhaust
The focus of this researchis the CO2 exhaust due to energy
consumption, food consumption and wood consumption.
(1) Prediction of the Amount of CO2 Exhaust
Due to Energy Consumption
The targeted source of energy is oil, coal and natural gas.
When these fossil fuels are used, the CO2 exhaust is
assumed to be the amount of the CO2 exhaust due to energy
consumption.
Consumpton Proportion of Fossil
by Region Fuel consumption
|
Fossil Consumption CO? Emission
by Fuel Type Coefficient
es
CO2 Emission
Fig.2. Method of predicting the amount of CO2 exhaust
. due to energy consumption
1) Amount of Energy Consumption
The amount of energy consumption is obtained from the
population and the amount of energy consumption per
capita.
E, CNS(0ZPOP(0 X E. CNS, CAP(0) "o. 702)
2) Amount of CO2 Exhaust Due to Energy
Consumption
The different amount of the CO2 exhaust for each source of
energy is obtained by taking the ratio of the consumption
of each source of energy to the total amount of energy
consumption and using different CO2 exhaust
coefficient"! for each source of energy.
E CO2()- a COAL CNS(t)
+ 8 OIL_CNS(t)+ y GAS_CNS(t) - - -()
(2) Prediction of the Amount of CO2 Exhaust
Due to Food Consumption
At times when the amount of food consumption exceeds
the present amount of food production, in other words,
when the amount of food becomes insufficient, the forest
where cultivationis possible is deforestedto cleara plot of
land for farming. In doing so, the amount of food
production is increased and foodinsufficiency is
supplemented In this case, the amount of CO2 exhaust
due to deforestation can be thought of as the amount of
CO2 exhaust due to food consumption or consumption of
primary produces.
Production by
Production by Region Consumption per
Regiontthis year) Productiontlast vear) Capital
Food
Deficiency
- Production per Area
Expansion of
Cultivated Land
eloréstation :
Area
‘| NPP per Area
| CO, Emission |
Fig.3. Method of predicung the amount of CO2 exhaust
due to food consumption
1) Amount of Food Consumption
The amount of food consumption is obtained from the
population and the amount of food consumption per capita.
PENS()=POP(Yy>F CNS CAPD + wold)
2) Amount of Food Production
The method of predicting the present amount of food
production uses the method which is proposed by Gotol?l.
The subjects areamount of 4 types of meat production and
the amount of the main 12 grains. Man does not consume
all the grains produced in various places as food; livestock
consume some percentage of these grains. In turn, meats
are obtained from these livestock. The current amount of
food production is obtained from the amount of grain
production and the amount of meat production. Moreover,
the present amount of food productionis obtained from the
amount of food produced from 1ha of cultivated land.
3) Amount of Potential Food Production
First of all, it is necessary to obtain the area of the region
where cultivation is possible to obtain the amount of the
potential food production. Using Cramer's method", the
possible area of the land than can be cultivated is obtained.
Cramer points at the region, in which the following three
conditions applies, as a suitable region where land
cultivation is possible.
1) Region of 2,000°C or more in total temperature for a
period it takes for plants to grow.
ii) The ratio of the soil moisture actually used in
evapotranspiration and the needed moisture of the regionis
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII, Part 7, Budapest, 1998 417
