haust
] when
ged to.
unto f
of log
od-use
and for
: (8)
: (9)
Wood
tree is
nside a
)W Was
: (10)
use
unt of
I?! to
al -use.
he net
mount
: (10)
n 1980,
ina 9)
ipacity
degree
of the soil in the region, and the different growth rate
depending on the kindof trees planted, the capacity of CO2
fixation of 9.6(highest value),2.8(lowest value)-tC/ha and
a simple average of 6.2tC/ha that was obtained by
Brown!!! is used According to the above value, capacity
of CO2 fixation every year due to afforestation is 6.89X
10’(tC). Actually, the capaaty of CO2 fixation along
with the growth of the tree is saturated In this research,
the replanted trees and their carbon fixation is assumed not
to change and is set to be constant.
2.6 Change in Amount of Grain Production
The change in the amount of grain production which
depends on the advancement of agricultural technology and
the CO2 exhaustis relatedto the amount of food production
as a coefficient.
(1) Effectof Feedbackof CO2 Density Increase
The effect of feedback of CO2 density increase was obtained
based on the presumption of UNEP!!?! that about 30% of
the amount of grain production increased when the CO2
density doubled It was assumed that there was a linear
relation between the CO2 density at this time and the
amount of the grain production.
(2) Effect of Feedback of Temperature Rise
Based on the research done by the CIAU! op the effect of
the change of temperature and rainfall in forecasting the
. amount of grain production, the effect of feedback of the
temperature rise is obtained However, because of the
change in rainfall pattern brought on by global warming is
not fully known yet, the influence of the amount of rainfall
was disregarded in this research.
(3) Advancement of Agricultural Technology
The change in the amount of food production for each lha
of cultivated land from 1985to 1992 is assumedas follows
as the advancement of an agricultural technology.
From 1985 to 1992 and thereafter, the food production per
lha of cultivated land for OECD, along with Non-OECD
region will change in expanding rate.
3. SIMULATION RESULT
The result of two kinds of scenarios of the GREEN
model 114] developed in OECD (economic cooperation
development mechanism) secretariat was used and
simulated conceming the forecast of future energy
consumption in Tab.1.
The simulation result of two kinds of the following
Scenarios is used in this study.
] ) Bau scenario: Current maintenance (BaU) scenario by
which policy of regulating CO2 exhaust increase is not
adopted at all
2 ) Toronto scenario: Toronto agreement type scenario by
which different load is imposed on OECD region and
Non-OECD region with respect to carbon restriction
To verify the validity of the result obtained from this
research, the amounts of CO2 emission due to human
activity are compared to the research result of IPCct!$1
The result is shown in Fig.6. This shows the human
induced CO2 emission of two scenario used in this study is
in the intermediate between three [IPCC scenarios. Fig.7
shows the population, estimated by UN., trend usedin this
study. Fig.8 shows the human induced the CO2 emission
in two regions. CO2 emission by food consumption and
wood consumption are depend on the human activities
through LUC. And this Fig. shows CO2 emission through
LUC in Nou-OECD country larger then OECD country.
And Fig.8. shows CO2 emission through LUC in Non-
OECD country larger then OECD country
x 10°C
16.0
14.0 4
12.0 4
10.0 4
8.0
60 7
40
| IE Toronto
[Ar IS92c
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
year
Fig.6. Estimated Human Induced CO2 emission vs. IPCC
Estimation
bilion
0 [EEE os
80 r 7.11
Population
LOT Em ee H B ox xd "s E
1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Fig.7. Population Trend
Intemational Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII, Part 7, Budapest, 1998 419
