9-11 Nov. 1999
5
the variables that will
instrument base over the
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ries by June 2000, was
9-2000 is considered, the
6 presents a forward
nt base based on these
35%"
tal Year Total
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8 18 38
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3 20 78
1 27 105
14 37 142
43 50 192
79 67 259
| Instrument Base
> world market for remote
Data and GIS Software
nsulting Report, 1999)
rowth rate through 2005
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on the projected increase.
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e laser altimetry can be
ywth and breakdown of
the future growth of the
open to interpretation. In
se that may eventually be
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base of instruments. The
ied sector of the remote
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 32, Part 3W14, La Jolla, CA, 9-11 Nov. 1999
sensing industry that offers one possible reference frame for
estimating the final base of laser sensors. Aerial film cameras
are a very mature technology that has been available as a
commercial product for nearly 80 years. Industry estimates of
the total number of aerial cameras built since 1920 for peaceful
commercial purposes are ~ 7,000 with a current worldwide base
of ~2000 (Fricker, 1999). Annual deliveries of new cameras are
estimated at 25-35 each year. (Walker, 1999). There are many
operational similarities that support this comparison between
aerial photogrammetry firms and survey companies offering
airborne laser services. Historically, many of the early adopters
of commercial laser altimetry were, and continue to be, aerial
survey companies looking to add elevation capture to their
imaging services. The operational requirements for air photo
and laser surveys - access to survey aircraft, trained and
experienced aerial survey crews and ground crews, support
infrastructure, business focus and skill sets are very
comparable.
To date the barriers to entry for most commercial air survey
firms have been the high capital costs of the laser sensors and
limited experience and exposure to laser technology. If the
barriers to entry for deploying laser altimetry within a survey
business were completely removed or significantly reduced, it
can be argued that 100% of aerial film camera operators would
incorporate laser altimetry in to their operations. The addition
of simultaneous elevation data capture to their normal imaging
operations would significantly increase the value of their data
end products in addition to opening new niche markets for their
services. However, for the purposes of this paper, a more
conservative estimate of 10% will be used to estimate the
percentage of the aerial camera owners that may eventually
acquire laser altimetry instruments. The 10% estimate is
assumed to be conservative enough to allow for continued
barriers to entry slowing adoption of the technology as well as
for the potential introduction of competing technology that may
reduce the operational advantages of laser altimetry. A 10%
overlap between the aerial camera market and laser altimetry
implies a total instrument base of ~200 sensor worldwide. This
is significantly more than the currently installed base of ~40
instruments, even projecting through 2000 to an installed base
of 60. A deficit of ~160 instruments represents a significant
challenge to the industry given the estimated production
capacity of 20 deliveries per year. Unless there is a significant
increase in this capacity, it will take the commercial instrument
manufacturers 7+ years to reach this level of an installed
instrument base. This becomes a concern considering the
dynamic nature of laser-based technology, which implies a
more rapid obsolescence than in the mature camera market.
3.4. Review of Assumptions
It is important to review the assumptions made in projecting the
total installed instrument base to identify possible biases and
areas for further study.
Installed Instrument Base: The information used to determine
the installed base of laser altimetry sensors, the year-over-year
growth, the booked and projected orders for 2000 and the
geographical distribution of instruments, was provided by
various sources and hence is open to some interpretation and
bias. In general, the total installed base does agree with a
recently published review of airborne laser scanning systems
that included bathymetric lidar systems. (Baltsavias, 1999b).
Further review of the database complied for this study over the
next 12 months will be useful to help revise these estimates.
For reference, a detailed industry directory is maintained by the
author at www.airbornelasermapping.com and updated versions
of the tables presented above will be available throughout 2000.
While there is some degree of uncertainty in the absolute
numbers presented, there is general agreement from most
sources that the current base of instruments is 35 - 40 with an
additional 20+ instruments likely to be in the field by mid 2001.
Size of Aerial Camera Market: The data on the size and
growth of the aerial film camera market are anecdotal best
estimates. Variations of £10% can easily be expected. More
detailed research in to this market would help to refine these
numbers and provide a better basis for the resulting estimates of
laser altimetry instruments that may eventually be installed. In
addition, regional breakdowns of aerial camera distributions
would help to allow for regional projections of laser altimetry.
A more comprehensive review of aerial survey company size
and organizational resources would be instructive to help better
define barriers and price points that may need to be addressed if
this client-base for laser altimetry sensors is to be captured.
10% Penetration of Market: This critical figure is an educated
assumption (i.e. a "guess") based on a conservative approach to
estimating the total market for laser altimetry. A more detailed
survey of aerial survey companies along with greater education
of this community about the benefits of laser altimetry would
help to better define the percentage of this client-base that may
be targeted as primary adopters of laser altimetry. Interactions
between price points and potential demand could also be
investigated. It should also be noted that an estimate based on
the established aerial camera market ignores any new entrants
to the field who may create additional demand for instruments.
4. CONCLUSIONS
The development of a competitive commercial airborne laser
altimetry sector within the remote sensing community will be
dependent in part upon the availability of a mature, reliable
instrument base. Maturing the technology and increasing its
acceptance by the end-user community requires both a
technology road map and effective forward planning on the part
of the stakeholders in instrument design and development. A
review of the commercial sector since 1995 shows a growing
increase in the number of instruments installed worldwide with
continued growth projected for at least the next 12 - 18 months.
It is estimated that the currently installed base of ~40 systems
will expand to ~60 by the end of 2000. The annual growth rate
for the instrument base has been between 25% - 35% over the
last three years with an increase in the percentage of
commercial off-the-shelf instruments compared to proprietary
systems. A preliminary estimate of the number of laser
altimetry instruments that may eventually be installed
worldwide has been made based on the aerial camera market. It
