175 
THE USE OF INTEGRATED MODELS 
IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 
Simon Wright 
GIS Section 
Environmental Information Section 
ITE Monks Wood 
Nigel Brown 
GIS Section 
Environmental Information Section 
ITE Monks Wood 
Terry Parr 
GIS Section 
Environmental Information Section 
ITE Monks Wood 
ABSTRACT 
Recent research has identified the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as a 
result of anthropogenic activities. Greenhouse Gases can change the global heat budget, 
producing a warming of the Earth's atmosphere. Global warming may have profound effects upon 
the landscape and biodiversity. The United Kingdom Department of the Environment (DoE) has 
funded research in this area under the title of the DoE Core Model programme. This programme 
has developed methodologies for the assessment of the impacts of climate change at European 
and national scales using geographic information systems (GIS) to integrate data and models 
within a multi-disciplinary study. 
The Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE) has developed GIS techniques for assessing theeffects 
of climate change on the distribution of plant and animal species. In predicting the response of 
ecosystems communities and species to changes in climate, a combination of mechanistic and 
empirical models have been used depending on the scale andcomplexity o fthe area of interest. 
ITE has used empirical methods in broad scale studies of species distribution where it is not 
currently possible to model species distribution and population dynamics at a mechanistic 
level. 
The overall aim was to develop methods for providing illustrative models for the prediction of the 
effects of climate change on species and vegetation. 
In this paper we describe two specific parts of the work; first the modelling of the distribution of 
species in relation to climate; second, the modelling of species migration. These will be illustrated 
using two examples. The first example shows how the distribution of Trollius europaeus (globe 
flower), a species of upland wetland habitats, may contract under an altered climate. This is