International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII Part 7C2, UNISPACE III, Vienna, 1999 
45 
I5PR5 
UNISPACE m - ISPRS Workshop on 
“Resource Mapping from Space” 
9:00 am -12:00 pm, 22 July 1999, VIC Room B 
Vienna, Austria 
ISPRS 
OPERATIONAL CROP MONITORING AND PRODUCTION FORECAST 
BY REMOTE SENSING IN HUNGARY 
G. Csomai. Cs. Wirnhardt, Zs. Suba. P. Somogyi, G. Nador, 
L. Martinovich, L. Tikasz, A. Kocsis, Gy. Zelei, M. Lelkes 
FOMI Remote Sensing Centre, 
Institute of Geodesy', Cartography and Remote Sensing 
H-l 149 Budapest, Bosnyak ter 5. 
Phone: 36-1-252-7898, fax: 36-1-252-8282 
E-mail: gabor.csomai@rsc.fomi.hu 
KEY WORDS: Operational, Crop Monitoring, Production Forecast. Area Assessment, Integrated Landsat-AVHRR Yield Model, 
Robust Yield Prediction, CROPMON, Waterlog Monitoring 
ABSTRACT 
The Hungarian Agricultural Remote Sensing Program led to a concise methodology that could further be applied operationally. First 
the main results of a substantial R+D investment and methodology plus validation results are summarized in the paper. The crops 
area assessment, through the processing of multitemporal Landsat and IRS-1C/1D data proved to be efficient at county level because 
of the accuracy of thematic classification. The novel combined high resolution images + NOAA AVHRR series based crop yield 
forecast methodology performed well for the major crops (8) at county level. A novel robust method that combines land use 
information with NOAA AVHRR time series for yield prediction is also introduced. Based on the experiences of the first 3 
operational years (from 1997) a general evaluation on the Operational Crop Monitoring and Production Forecast Program 
(CROPMON) is given. The CROPMON system is a good platform for additional projects implementation as in the case of a serious 
waterlog assessment and impact analysis in spring, 1999. 
1. BACKGROUND 
Up to 1990 the crop production was based on some 1400 co 
operative or state farms in Hungary. The crop information 
system used their reports that were obligatory by law. This 
information system worked fairly well. Because of the dramatic 
changes in the Hungarian economy and also in the agriculture, 
the former crop information system became inadequate. The 
land privatisation brought dramatic changes in the holdings and 
parcel sizes, the number of farm owners or operators, the 
agricultural technology and investments. In this very quick 
transition, the need for an efficient information system became 
even more imperative. 
The priority Hungarian Agricultural Remote Sensing Program 
(HARSP) was launched in 1980 and has been implemented by 
FÔMI Remote Sensing Centre (FÓMI RSC). The final objective 
of the program was to introduce remote sensing to the 
operational agro information system in Hungary. The 
operational system was expected to be capable to monitor crops 
in the entire country', providing accurate, timely and reliable 
information on the area of the major crops, their development 
quantitatively. This should be accompanied by problems areas 
delineation (focusing to drought assessment), plus the provision 
of reliable yield forecast and final yield estimates. These data 
are to be available at the country as well as the counties (19) 
levels. The main users of the information includes, primarily the 
Ministry of Agriculture and Regional Development (MoARD) 
and gradually the grain processing and trading companies and 
associations, the farmers and their different organisations, 
associations. Even in the third years of operations and having a 
lot of experience to meet the strict accuracy and deadline 
requirements there is a continuous improvement in the 
technology applied. This leads to a number of additional 
applications offered by this system. 
2. THE TWO MAIN PERIODS OF THE PROGRAM 
The HARSP (1980-99) program can be divided to two main 
periods: 
• tlte development of the methodology basis, the crop 
mapping and area assessment methods plus the yield 
forecast models and validation (1980-96) and 
• the operational period (1997-99). 
The final, most intensive period (1993-96) was the break 
through in the development. This resulted in an operationally 
ready to use technology that had been validated prior to the 
operational phase on a 16 counties sample from quite a diverse 
crop years period: 1991-96 (Csomai et. al., 1998). 
2.1. The operational crop area assessment method 
The method was developed by FOMI RSC. It applies high 
resolution satellite data series (e.g. Landsat, IRS-1C/1D, SPOT) 
in as a multitemporal digital image analysis procedure for file 
crop identification and area estimation (Csornai et al., 1983). 
This approach was thoroughly tested by 1990 up to 3 counties 
region (Csornai et. al., 1990). It was found that the traditional 
agro information system in Hungary, can only be surpassed in 
accuracy if advanced digital image analysis was used (Csornai 
et. al., 1997). This approach also provides reliable crop maps, 
which are necessary to the crop development monitoring and 
production forecast models.