CIP A 2003 XIX th International Symposium, 30 September - 04 October, 2003, Antalva, Turkey 
The increasing mobility of individuals and the numeric growth 
of social groups, which are increasingly related to cultural and 
ethnic backgrounds, is coupled to a fragmentation of urban 
space into strongly homogeneous areas (neighbourhoods, 
districts). The social polarization and fragmentation is 
exceedingly clear in American cities and is now also 
recognizable in European cities. There proves to be a correlation 
between social fragmentation and the fragmentation of urban 
space. 
In terms of land area, the historic inner city takes an 
unexceptional place among the urban areas that make up the 
city. The same applies if we rank urban areas on the basis of the 
usable floor area provided by the buildings. 
FUTURE PROFILE OF THE HISTORIC CENTRE 
The relative market positions of individual distinct 
urban areas are subject to constant change. The evolving 
market position of the historic city centre can be 
ascribed to the following developments and aspects: 
• The original users are transferring their activities 
to other locations, while new users present 
themselves. The motives of those departing are 
related to aspects like accessibility, spatial 
capacity and price. 
• Relative functional obsolescence: technology is 
developing quickly and continually generates 
new ‘tools’ for industry and consumers. 
Developments in ICT illustrate this trend well. 
The historic city centre adapts with much greater 
difficulty to the demands of present times 
(particularly when large-scale modifications are 
involved) compared to other city areas. 
• Demographic developments: population growth 
induces expansion within existing cities. The 
territory and population size of the city as a 
whole increase, while the land area of the 
historic centre remains constant and thus 
‘shrinks’ in relative terms. 
• The technical ageing of buildings, due to among 
other things intensive use. 
• The increasing ‘rarity value’ of the historic inner 
city, which exerts a positive effect on its 
attractiveness and market position. 
• The growing action radius of companies and 
consumers. The number of locations which may 
be considered in the selection process by 
companies and individuals has undergone 
tremendous growth. Companies are becoming 
increasingly global in outlook, and the European 
scale is becoming an everyday reality for 
individual consumers. 
In Europe we have been through a lengthy period - to be 
expressed in centuries - during which progressive urbanization 
has been the norm. The industrial period, in particular, saw 
unprecedented growth in the size of cities. During Europe's 
post-war development phase, the main basic assumption was 
one of continuing urbanisation, with the result that the level of 
urbanisation currently stands at 80%. 
By 1992, 5.8% of the EU's economy was based on agriculture, 
32.8% on industry and 60.9% on services; the corresponding 
figures in the USA were 2.9%, 26.2% and 70.9%. These figures 
change with time almost universally, the most noticeable 
increase being in the part played by services in overall 
economic activity. The world is becoming a service economy. 
(Prof. Jacob de Smit, Leiden University School of Management) 
Within the service economy, the historic city centre is regaining 
a position in the focus of social developments. In “The future of 
the center: The core City in the new economy” by Joel Kotkin, 
the author sketches future economic developments, with the 
historic centre playing a key part in them. 
“Even under the best of circumstances, center cities 
are unlikely to ever emerge as the geographically 
dominant centers of their metropolitan regions as they 
were in the industrial era. Instead, the new urban core 
resembles more that of the renaissance city- relatively 
smaller, and built around classical urban functions 
such as arts, cross-cultural trade, and highly 1 
specialized small-scale production” 
“Ultimately, the revival of the urban core, whether in 
the traditional city or the more dispersed model 
common to the sunbelt agglomerations, stems from a 
search for a sense of place and history amidst a 
society in which the barriers of time and space are 
under constant assault. As centres of arts and culture, 
repositories of our past history and architecture, the 
core retains a powerful tug of consciousness. It 
reminds us not only who we are but also what we 
have been” 
Characteristics 
future European 
landscape 
Function 
historic c 
tourist 
centre 
a! position 
ity centre 
vitality 
womb 
faded 
glory 
scenario 1 
concentration 
ongoing urbanisation 
scenario 2 
differentiation 
a place for any city 
scenario 3 
decomposition 
the city spread 
Figure 4 Future profile historic city centre 
FUTURE PROFILE AND HISTORIC SPATIAL 
FRAMEWORK, CONFLICT OR BOOST 
The continually fluctuating market position of individual city 
areas is reflected in changes to their status and function. These 
changes are in turn a spur to spatial modifications. It is more 
complex to modify an existing urban area than to develop a 
greenfield site, because the developers cannot start from a 
‘virgin ground’ situation. The kind of areas referred to here are 
those whose potential exceeds the level of current use. This 
means that there is scope for investments aimed at improving 
the physical environment - changes that contribute to a balance 
between the market position of the location, the urban area, and 
the function and status of the properties located there. If the 
discrepancy between the present use and the changed situation