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ISPRS, Vol.34, Part 2W2, “Dynamic and Multi-Dimensional GIS”, Bangkok, May 23-25, 2001
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that the research results should be composed of not only a set of
decision alternatives (presented as research reports) but also a
computer management system (presented as computer software
packages). Decision-makers can then keep inputting varied
information (for the future periods) to the software and obtaining
updated solutions. Thus, new alternatives can be obtained
through interpretation of the solutions.
Multi-objective Feature
In the study system under consideration, there exist many
environmental, socio-economic, and resources objectives, which
are of concern to a number of stakeholders bearing different
interests. These objectives also interact to each other, with
potentials of limiting or promoting each other. Thus, the problem
under consideration is how to make tradeoff or compromise
between interests from different stakeholders, in order to
maximize overall benefits of the entire system.
Uncertain Feature
Many system components and their interrelationships are
uncertain in the study system. Normally, people get used of
using mean value or middle value to represent uncertain
information. However, for a system with many uncertain factors,
this approximation may lead to loss of information. For example,
it is hard to obtain deterministic value of loading capacity for
tourists at a sightseeing spot. Instead, only some uncertain
information is available. If we simply present it by a mean or
middle value, reliability of the resulting planning may be affected.
The above descriptions demonstrate complexity of the study
system. Thus, simple decision or expert consultation would not
be good enough for generating an effective decision support.
Employment of systems analysis methods that can incorporate a
variety of system components within a general modeling
framework is desired.
WATERSHED MODELING
A watershed is a complex system with human activities in water
and in land. It is impossible to use a single model to reflect a
variety of activities in a watershed. This study developed a
modeling system containing three major components: (i)
simulation models which are useful for bridging source/impact
factors and the related water quality, as well as predicting
system behaviors under different conditions; (ii) optimization
models which will be used for compromising a variety of system
objectives and generating desired decision alternatives; and (iii)
post-simulation/optimization models for further trade-off analysis
and risk assessment in order to facilitate practical
implementation of the generated alternatives applied to analyze.
Simulation Modeling
The mechanisms of pollutant transport in a watershed are very
complex, involving many factors such as hydrological,
topographical, chemical and biological processes, as well as soil-
type and land use conditions. These factors are related to both
point and non-point source pollution problems. For effective
watershed management and planning, an important issue is the
ability to simulate and predict impacts of human activities and
related environmental conditions on both water quantity and
quality. In this study, hydrologic/water quality (H/WQ) models
have been developed to link a number of human activities to
their pollution impacts. Four major processes, including
hydrological cycle, soil erosion, and water quality, are simulated.
QUAL2E is widely used for modeling water quality of well mixed
and dendritic streams (Brown et al., 1987). It simulates the major
reactions of nutrient cycles, algal production, benthic and
carbonaceous demand, atmospheric reaeration, and their effects
on the dissolved oxygen balance. It can be used for predicting
concentrations of up to 15 water quality constituents.
For the hydrological cycle, HSPF (Bicknell et al., 1997) simulates
for extended periods of time the hydrologic processes, and
associated water quality, on pervious and impervious land
surfaces and in streams and well-mixed impoundments. HSPF is
generally used for assessing the effects of land-use change,
reservoir operations, point or non-point source pollution control,
and flow diversions, etc.
The USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) (Renard et al., 1991)
estimates annual sheet and rill erosion as affected by six factors:
rainfall erovisity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness,
cover and management, and conservation practices. Concepts
of USLE have been customized to the detailed study basin,
which provides prediction of soil loss under different hydrological,
climatological and landscape conditions (Huang, 1995a). Since
the majority of parameters related to soil loss are uncertain in
their nature, probabilistic and inexact analyses for the
uncertainties will be undertaken throughout the modeling
process.
Optimization Modeling
An inexact-fuzzy multiobjective linear programming (IFMOP)
model is developed to form an environmental decision support
system, in association with a number of simulation/evaluation
tools. The IFMOP is proposed by extending the inexact fuzzy
linear programming (IFLP) method (Huang et al., 1993) to a
multiobjective decision-making problem. An interactive approach
is proposed for conveniently obtaining indispensable intervention
from decision-makers during the IFMOP modeling process.
The IFLP was developed as a branch of inexact mathematical
programming (Huang, 1994) which is effective for optimization
under incomplete uncertainty (e.g. information with known
fluctuation intervals but unknown probabilistic or possibilistic
distributions). The method has been successfully applied to a
variety of management and planning problems (Huang, 1994,
Huang, 1996; Huang et al., 1996; Yeh, 1995). The IFMOP is a
hybrid of the IFLP and fuzzy multiobjective program
Membership functions for both objectives and constraints are
formulated to reflect uncertainties in different system
components and their interrelationships. A solution algorithm for
inexact linear programming (Huang, 1996) is employed to handle
uncertainties in the lefthand side coefficients. Thus, the IFMOP
allows uncertainties to be directly communicated into the
programming processes and resulting solutions. Its inexact
solutions can be interpreted for generating decision alternatives
and conducting further risk analyses. Also, the IFMOP solution
approaches do not lead to complicated intermediate submodels,
and thus have reasonable computational requirements. A
general multiobjective linear programming problem with inexact
parameters can be formulated as follows:
min
fk* = (Vx*,
k = 1,2 p,
(1a)
max
f* = ctx\
/= p+1, p+2, ...
,q, (1b)
s.t.
Aj'X* < b*,
i = 1, 2, ... , m,
(1C)
A^X* > bj*.
j = m+1, m+2,..
. ,n, (id)
X*>0,
(1e)
where
X± e {«±}tx1,
Ck± e{1R±}1xt, Cl±
e{in±}1xt, Ai± e
{iR±}1xt, Aj± e {ït±}1 xt, and s Jt± denotes a set of interval
numbers.
When all parameters in model (1) are known as intervals without
distribution information, this is an inexact multiobjective
programming (IMOP) problem. When some of the parameters
are assigned with membership functions, the model becomes a
hybrid inexact-fuzzy MOP (IFMOP) problem. In this study, the