749 
year were lass than 3.3 billions Yuan, so it's con 
sidered that the amount of investment in 2000 will 
not surpass 12.7 billions Yuan which is on the saint! 
book,perhaps it will be 7 to 10 billions Yuan. 
3.3. The Kmission Tendency Of Air Pollutants 
According to the emissions changing of TSP and S02 
in 1980s, and the coefficient changing which is the 
emissions per iO.OOO tons total energy consumption 
in whole country each year, we can make a appraisal 
of possible emissions in 1990 and 2000 ( see Pig.10 
and 11 ). 
Fig.10. The changing of S02 coefficient which is 
the emissions per total energy consumption in 
China. 
Fig.11. The changing of TSP coefficient which is 
the emissions per total energy consumption in 
China. 
The coefficient of $02 rose again in 1987. Take the 
going down tendency in resent years and the stable 
tendency in the last four years,in 1990 the coeffi 
cient will be 0.015—0.017, according to the above 
estimation which total energy consumption will 
reach to one billion tons ( convert into standard 
coal ) the S02 real emissions will reach t:o 16 
million tons or so. If it keeps the lessening speed 
in 1984-1987, the coefficient of S02 will be 0.012 
in 2000, that is, to calculate total energy con 
sumption in 2000 which is 16 billion tons,$02 emis 
sions will be 19-20 million tons. 
The coefficient of TSP shows the going down 
tendency on Fig.10. Take the tendency of 1984-1987 
as an example to estimate the coefficient of T$P in 
1990, it will be 0.024. That, is, the TSP emissions 
in 1990 will be 24.2 million tons or so,and it goes 
down 5% compared with the TSP emissions in 1988. If 
we take the decreament rate of 1984-1987 as a model, 
the coefficient of TSP will be 0.014 in 2000,so ISP 
emissions will be 22.4 billion tons. 
4. AN KSTIMATI0N OF THK AIR QUALITY IN 2000 
4.1. The Background Of Meteorology 
China is in the southeast of Eurasia, the roof of 
the world lies in the southwest, and the east sea 
lies to the Pacific Ocean. This complex topography 
docidied that it has a clearly monsoon charictor in 
the east of China, find the climatic feather in 
different parts are poles apart. 
In January,t.he northern maximum mixing height (MMH) 
is lower than in the southern.In July, that is just 
on the contrary. This makes an obviously difference 
of the environmental quality between summer and 
winter in the northern area.In winter most parts of 
area are controlled by Mongolia's cool anticyclone, 
so they always have wind by north; and in summer 
they are influnced by the subtropical anticyclone, 
wind by south are mainly in these time. 
Calm frequency has obviously differences in differ 
ent parts of China. At most it reachs to 73% in 
southwest and south areas, the middle of northwest 
area are all the areas of high frequency. At least 
is 5% which monthly average is 0.5m/s. To calculate 
with maximum polluted coefficient Gansu and Sichuan 
provinces have the weakest capacity of air self 
purficat ion. 
The observed data shows that since 1950s drought 
frequency and windy and dusty days in some northern 
areas have increased, and annual precipitation has 
dropped. It estimates that it will not be more or 
less improvement in 2000, and some northern areas 
are pregnant with imminent danger. The Greenhouse 
of the world has the possibility to worsen damange 
by water-logging in the coast areas and near sea 
areas of China, on the contrary, it may worsen 
damange by drought in northwest areas. So,the back 
ground of meteorology for dusty pollution is very 
unfavourable on the serious dusty pollution in 
northern areas of China. 
4.2. The Method Of Estimation And 
The Emissions In 2000 
In 1980s the changing situation of the environ 
mental air quality and the situation of air pollut 
ants emissions are the basic information for us to 
Table.3. In 2000, the results of the emissions 
predicting. UNIT: 10,00OT 
~r 
1 
i CONTROL PROJECT 
j 
EMISSIONS 
i ITEM 
h ■ 
. _ r 
-1 
i 
i HIGHER 
| MIDDLE 
1 
IN 2000 
SÛ2 
j 1,846 
2,071 
i 
1,992 
~t~ 
—f- 
--j- 
-j 
i NOx 
! 772 
i 813.6 
813.6 : 
j~ — - 
-j- - 
-4- • . „ 
-j- 
i DUST 
i 1,285 
! 2,207 
i 
2,240 
i 
4— 
i- 
-i 
C.C 
140,000 
.] 
160,000 ! 
C.C: 
coal consumption 
CONTROL PROJECT: 
from the book of 
W.X.WANG et 
al 
1987.