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QUANTITATIVE REMOTE SENSING APPROACH TO MONITORING 
AND FORECAST OF THE ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS: 
AMUDARYA DELTA STUDY AREA 
Boris V. Vinogradov 
Head of WG Aerospace Methods, Severtzov's Institute, Academy of 
Sciences, Leninsky pr. 33, Moscow 117071, the USSR 
ABSTRACT 
The paper presents the new technology of aerospace changedetection, mathematical modelling technique of 
the ecosystemdynamics and ecological forecasting based on repeatative aerial and space surveys. This study 
area covers the dramatically changed region of desertification of Aral sea environs and Amudarya delta 
ecosystems. Complex analysis of area change of ten ecosystem classes was revealed by repeated space photos 
1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, traces of ecological trends and provides for Markovian approach to the dynamic 
modelling and ecological forecasting to 2010. 
INTRODUCTION 
Repeated aerial and space surveys and comparison of successive images of the same study area is the most 
effective and the most correct technique for ecological monitoring and mathematical modelling of the 
long-term ecosystem dynamics over large ecoregions. This aerospace approach to complex analysis of the 
ecosysytem dynamics was used in some countries. In France M. Godron and co-authors [Debussche et al., 
1977] compiled the transition matrices derived from comparison aerial photographs 1948 vs. 1968 for study of 
the ecosystem dynamics on area of 76 sq.km. In Spine M. Camarasa and co-authors [Camarasa et al., 1977] 
compiled the transition matrices from comparison of survey data 1965 vs. 1973 for monitoring of the ecosystem 
dynamics on area 475 sq.km. The firstspace dynamic experiment was founded in the USSR in 1970 on the 
Sal'steppe test region, where on area of 100 sq.km the trends ofland use changes was traced by comparison 
of space photographs, aerial surveys and maps 1962, 1970, and 1978 [Vinogradov, Ivanchenkov,et al., 1980 
(1979)]. Then, complex analysis of the ecosystem dynamics was applied to other test regions: the wetlands 
of the NE States USA by aerial photographs 1951 vs. 1971 [Larson,Golet, 1982], the Lower Amudarya Delta 
by aerial photographs 1962,1970, and 1978 [Vinogradov, Popov, 1982], the heathlands in the Netherlands by 
multiyear aerial photographs the a 30-year period 1950-1981 [Heusden, 1983], the Middle Latvian Plain by 
aerialphotograps 1938, 1956, and 1972 [Vinogradov, Shvede, 1985 (1984)], the Kalmykian Black Lands by 
multiyear aerial and space photographs from 1954 to 1984 [Vinogradov, Lebedev, Kulik, 1986 (1985)]. These 
experiments about aerospace monitoring of the ecosystem dynamics were reviewed recently [Vinogradov, 1988]. 
Study Area 
The most dramatically changed region of ecological disaster is well known in the Aral sea environs. From 
beginning of 1960-sirrational enlargement of irrigated fields and surplus disharge of irrigeted waters led to 
exhaustion of river water, to drying and soil mineralization of the Amudarya delta, and to fall of the Aralsea 
level. For 25 years sea level fall on 14 m, sea area was reduced more the 60%, water volume was diminished 
more then 65%. Delta‘s population reaches 3 min., and Karakalpak peoples are found on the brink of 
extinction. Thus, bad management and water politics led to ecological and social disaster in the Amudarya 
delta region. One can stay the question why processes of desertification wasn‘t prevented long time from end 
of 1960-s, during 1970-s and beginning of 1980-s when fight against desertification could be more effective. 
This contingency results from gouvernmental censorship prohibition of any publications about Aral sea disaster 
before middle 1980-s. Because of this, prevention of desertification couldn't realized long time, and