We also need more information about key indicator 
plant species, observation standards, and 
symptoms of change in health and vigor of 
vegetation, as related to forest stressors. The 
methods needed to integrate this information 
likely will be provided by the Forest Insect and 
Disease Research staff of the US Forest Service, 
the Soil Conservation Service, and other 
cooperators who provide guides on indicator 
plants and basic forest stressors. 
Some ongoing research will help identify 
stressing agents and their relationships to 
vegetation and climate. One promising area is 
forest pest research. For example, black-headed 
budworm (Acleris gloverana (Wals.)) infestations 
in Alaska have been linked to temperature 
changes. Hard (1974) suggested that the budworm 
has little tolerance for cold. So, budworm 
populations are lower around Prince William Sound 
because forests there are slightly cooler. 
But within the past decade budworm outbreaks have 
occurred in Prince William Sound as well as in 
interior Alaska. All subsided before the 
infestation became of consequence. Apparently 
the Prince William Sound temperature range 
includes the budworm's minimum tolerance level. 
If area temperatures are, in fact, at a budworm 
survival threshold, and if global warming is 
occurring, the population might have less trouble 
surviving in the sound in the future. These are 
the kinds of forest stressor indicators that may 
show up in a monitoring system*. 
Similar research on spruce bark beetle 
(Dendroctonus rufipennis Kby) in southcentral 
Alaska suggests that temperature changes affect 
bark beetle populations (Hard, In Press). But 
the risk of bark beetle outbreak also may be 
affected by whether spruce stands are open 
canopied (Reynolds and Hard, In Press). and the 
risk varies by plant community. Therefore, 
forest foliar cover is another dynamic to monitor 
in terms of risk from insect attack. If foliar 
cover of forests is decreased by climatic change, 
bark beetle attacks may increase. However, other 
stressors probably will become apparent before 
foliar cover decreases noticeably. Additionally, 
that data may be site-specific in certain 
situations. 
Investigators also must monitor other forest pest 
areas, including tree anatomy, fungi, foliage 
color, and site characteristics. Numerous other 
possible indicators or variables also may point 
to vegetation stress. Research and synthesis 
must be done to begin understanding them. 
Additional cooperative effort is needed to 
determine what information and data is necessary 
for chemical evaluation of soils and foliage. 
Monitoring for permafrost and soil temperature 
changes may require special procedures. The 
USDA's Soil Conservation Service and the 
University of Alaska will be asked to assist in 
these two study areas. 
* Personal conversation with John S. Hard, 
Research Entomologist, Institute of Northern 
Forestry, Anchorage, Alaska. 
Researchers also must determine the observation 
requirements for key vegetation indicator 
species. Plants that should be observed may 
vary, depending on the particular plant community 
and level of stress. Instruments needed to 
monitor forest health will vary, depending on 
research proposals and guidance from cooperators. 
A fascinating challenge now facing researchers is 
the identification of attributes through remote 
sensing. The state of remote sensing art is 
advancing rapidly with the development of new 
sensors and new techniques for monitoring 
vegetation changes. Much attention will be given 
to these developments in the final study plan. 
Researchers will seek guidance on these and other 
issues from cooperators such as the Institute of 
Northern Forestry, University of Alaska, Cold 
Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 
Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, Bureau 
of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife 
Service, Soil Conservation Service, National 
Forest Systems, and others. 
At least two Information Needs Assessment 
workshops (LaBau, 1987) will be held prior to 
launching this monitoring plan. All possible 
cooperators will be involved, in order to 
identify a full spectrum of data elements that 
need collection. 
THE GENERAL MONITORING CONCEPT 
This proposed monitoring design should be 
considered just one iteration of a much broader, 
and continually changing, monitoring scheme. The 
broader scheme involves a wide spectrum of 
cooperators whose individual monitoring programs 
will be conducted independently, but in a manner 
complementary to the others. 
For instance, this plan is designed to interface 
with a plan developed by the Anchorage EROS Field 
Office of the US Geological Survey (USGS) . The 
USGS research program, "Baseline Studies for 
Monitoring Global Climatic Change in the Arctic 
Environment: A Remote Sensing-Spatial Database 
Approach" (Shasby, 1989) , proposes to monitor 
eight of the 12 sites shown in Figure 1. In 
addition, an attempt will be made to include as 
many of the Research Natural Areas of Alaska in 
the monitoring framework. The plots, distributed 
across Alaska, are in areas considered to have 
special potential for providing early indications 
of global climate change. The study will 
emphasize analysis and integration of digital 
satellite data, and digital earth sciences 
databases developed in geographic information 
systems for site- specific studies. 
Similar plans are being developed by the 
University of Alaska, Bureau of Land Management 
and National Park Service. Any other general 
plans for monitoring changes in vegetation health 
and vigor in Alaska should be designed to 
coordinate and cooperate with these efforts. 
The Anchorage Forestry Sciences Laboratory (AFSL) 
is planning its vegetation health and vigor 
monitoring design to work closely with the other 
programs. 
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