CIP A 2003 XIX 11 ' International Symposium, 30 September - 04 October, 2003, Antalya, Turkey
GROWING MOBILITY, PHYSICAL AND
VIRTUAL
Computer technology is taking Western society by storm,
reducing our dependence on time and space. Communication
and the supply of services can take place asynchronously,
twenty-four hours a day, to suit the individual's needs.
Unlimited virtual mobility is within reach. If he so wishes,
every individual can be located and contacted at any time,
regardless of where he is.
The apparently unlimited growth in virtual mobility should lead
to a proportional decrease in physical mobility. The need to
move from one place to another is vanishing. It might be
thought possible for everything to be arranged, controlled and
experienced from the intelligent, 'full-service' home, but this
turns out not to be the case. The quality of experience 'within
the home', physically remote from the thing experienced, turns
out to be completely inadequate. The increase in the amount of
free time and the increase in facilities for spending that free time
resulting from the computer-supported asynchronous 24-hour
society will lead to a significant growth in physical mobility.
The need to travel may have disappeared, but the desire to travel
is still very much present.
Historical data suggests that throughout the world personal
income and traffic volume grow in tandem. The annual distance
travelled per capita by car, bus, train or aircraft ('motorised
mobility', or 'traffic volume') increases in roughly the same
proportion as average income. In 1960 the average North
American earned $9,600 and travelled 12,000 kilometres (7,460
miles); by 1990 both per capita income and traffic volume had
approximately doubled. Research by, for example, Andreas
Schafer (Massachusetts Insitute of Technology) has shown that
the time people spend on travel is more or less constant.
The big question however is whether the trend observed over
recent decades can properly be projected over decades to come.
It could be argued that the impact of ICT development has been
great enough to break the trend.
Paul Peters has compared human and animal relocation
behaviour. He argues that to explain human relocation
behaviour a model should be constructed based on the positive
and negative utility of relocation, where utility is measured in
terms of satisfaction and dissatisfaction. In what follows a
number of aspects of mobility will be considered taking the
same approach.
Until recently people who were travelling were difficult or
impossible to reach for the purposes of communication. This
element of dissatisfaction or inconvenience probably had a
significant influence on relocation behaviour. The introduction
of the mobile telephone and the phenomenal success of e-mail
have virtually eliminated this inconvenience. These
developments led to radical changes in the 1990s, sufficient to
indicate a break in the trend.
In recent decades, and even before, economic activity was
firmly tied to a specific location. The blue-collar worker had to
work in a factory or workshop. Even in the service sector, in
office work, until recently presence at the workplace was the
main criterion for work done. Of course in the agricultural
sector production is by definition tied to a specific location.
In Europe the service sector continues its rapid growth in
parallel with a decrease in the industrial and agricultural sector.
Social developments have led to work effort being measured
less by presence and more by performance. This fact, combined
with developments in ICT, has reduced the extent to which
labour is tied to a particular geographical location or indeed to a
particular time. We find ourselves at the beginning of a period
of rapid development which can itself be seen as a break in the
trend.
Computer technology is taking over Western society and in due
course will raise the European's physical mobility to a level
much higher than today.
Increasing physical mobility will shrink the Europe of the near
future to the size of metropolises like Paris and London in the
19th century.
The Europeans of today and tomorrow are less tight to the city
they were bom in then our parents were. The Europeans of
today and tomorrow are also more interested in the history of
Europe then our parents were. Together with the growth of the
action radius the scope of interest in history is growing. In that
context the historic city centre is getting more attention then
before.
DEVELOPMENTS IN SPACE CONSUMPTION
In Europe the average size of household has decreased
significantly. In 1960 the average size of a European household
still ranged between 3.0 and 3.5. By 1990 these figures had
fallen to 2.5 - 3.0. Today in most European inner cities the
average household size is less than two. Suppose that in the
coming decades, i.e. within the time horizon of those planning
Europe's future, the average number of residents per European
home falls from 2.5 to 2.0. If the size of the population remains
unchanged this will mean a requirement for more than 30
million new homes.
The task of urban reorganisation will be at least as large. A great
deal of building was done in the post-war period to make good
the damage done by the war. This was followed by a period of
building to provide space for the rapid increase in the size of
Europe's population. The post-war baby boom is responsible for
today's rapidly ageing population.
Of course this expansion and reorganisation of European real
estate will not be limited to housing. All sorts of other urban
facilities, shops, hospitals, schools, offices etc. will require
extension and renewal as, finally, will the urban infrastructure
which establishes the conditions for interaction between all the
various urban elements.
In the service economy of the future, workers involved in
knowledge-based activities will be very well represented.
Labour and capital, the traditional factors affecting production,
will be increasingly dependent on specialised knowledge. The
part played by specialised knowledge in product design and
production processes will continue to grow. Computer
assistance will mean that work related to knowledge-intensive
professions will be less and less dependent on time and
location. 8
Rural areas are increasingly losing their original function. Cities
are becoming more and more 'clogged up'. The amount of space
required by the European population continues to grow rapidly.
The problem of space, combined with developments in the field
of virtual and physical mobility, is forcing Europe towards a
break in the trend to urbanisation. Continuing urbanisation has
always been a feature of European history, however far back
one looks. The reasons for this are to be found in the nature and
structure of the organisation of employment and in the logistic
conditions required for the distribution of goods and services. In
the present and future social and economic context, spatial
considerations mean that more extensive urbanisation is not an
option. Other ways must be found to satisfy the population’s
ever-increasing demand for space instead of simply extending
the size of the urban area.
