above-normal and below-normal yields
have? To answer this question quantita-
tively, the total wheat hectarage grow-
ing in each of these crop regions must
be known. The LACIE wheat hectarage
estimates for each region were multiplied
by the forecast yield per hectare to
obtain a production estimation for each
region. When these individual production
figures were summed, the overall estimate
of spring wheat production was 36.3
million metric tons, a deviation from
normal of about 21%. Figure 18 shows
that the initial August LACIE forecasts
of Soviet spring wheat yields - 9 quintals
per hectare - were about 21% below the
Soviet spring wheat average of 11.5.
The performance of the Soviet esti-
mates was also supported by more inten-
sive evaluations in the U.S. yardstick.
Phase III results in this region support
USSR.
420 412 415 41.4 413
* nanas Pme e
411
36.6
ë
8
i
*
5
i
seruat FAS
LACIE
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR [MAY] JUN] JUL [AUG] SEP [OCT | NOV | DEC
YIELD
Quintals/hectare
e....... FAS
LACIE
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN [ JUL TAUG | SEP J OCT | NOV | DEC
PRODUCTION
Millions of metric tons
s........ FAS
LACIE
DEC | JAN | FEB [MAR] APR | MAY] JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC
LACIE — realtime reporting 17-3408
3218
Figure 18.— LACIE U.S.S.R. spring wheat
forecasts for 1977.
a conclusion that the technical modifica-
tions incorporated into the experiment
had indeed led to significant improvement
in the analysis of Landsat data. The
production estimates for the region
were compared throughout the season to the
"true value" given by the U.S. Statistical
Reporting Service (SRS).* The LACIE
estimates met the 90/90 accuracy goal at
harvest and even achieved this 1-1/2 to 2
months before harvest. The results of the
area and yield components for the region
are shown in figure 19. It can be noted
that the acreage estimates were quite good
while the yield forecasts tended to be under
those of the Statistical Reporting Service.
*The Statistical Reporting Service (SRS)
has since become a part of the Economics,
Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
(ESCS).
50.0 509 496
492 496
Millions of acres
een... ESCS
LACIE
DEC [JAN J FEB [MART APR [MAY T JUN T JUL [AUG [ SEP J OCT [NOV [ DEC
YIEID
280 277 27.6 27.5
PRODUCTION
1384 1376
1270 1269 1223 1228 1232
Millions of bushels
........ ESCS
LACIE
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR] APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT [NOV | DEC
LACIE — reai—time reporting
9—state total
Colorado, Kensas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana,
Minnesota, North Dskota, and South Dakota
Figure 19.— Phase III U.S. yardstick
estimates.