International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Vol XXXV, Part B7. Istanbul 2004
Figure 8: Expected main-axes of the further grow
the city of Istanbul, but also by the ministry for regional
development and environment. The project also contains
valuable information for the development of tourism and for
potential investors. It also could be part in the national
earthquake program, together with ancillary data sets like
geologic maps.
Ruhrgebiet 24,63
Sunderland 26,06
Dresden 35,95
Wien 36,61
Munich 44,67
Prague 54,35
Copenhagen 59.11
Marseille 60,67
Brussels 75,88
Lyon 81,22
Dublin 95.78
Milan 103,82
Tallinn 106,14
Nicosia 109,63
Bilbao 124,15
Oporto 136,77
Iraklion 139,65
Helsinki
Grenoble
Bratislava
Palermo
Setubal
Istanbul 83,87
Figure 9: Urban grow within the last 40 years in percent,
analysed under Moland or Murbandy
788
S MODELLING AND
FORECASTING SCENARIOS OF URBAN
AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
The urban and regional growth model
that is used in MOLAND is based on
spatial dynamics systems called
"cellular automata". The model takes as
input five types of digital maps, for the
geographical area of interest:
o actual land use types present
in the area;
o inherent suitability of the area
for different land uses;
o zoning status (ie. legal
constraints) of the area for
different land uses;
o accessibility of the area to the
transport network;
O socio-economic characteristics
(e.g. population, income,
production, employment) of
the area.
The information on land use types and transport networks is
derived from the detailed GIS databases that were produced for
each of the study areas, as part of MOLAND. The output from
the urban growth model is maps of predicted land use
development over twenty years. :
The underlying spatial dynamics of the MOLAND urban and
regional growth model are determined by so-called “transition
rules", which specify the interaction between neighbouring land
use types.
By modifying the input data (e.g. zoning, suitability, transport
links), the MOLAND urban and regional growth model can be
used to explore, in a realistic way, alternative future scenarios of
land use development. The following types of spatial planning
and policy "interventions" — with sample “real” applications —
can be easily simulated with the model:
o Addition / removal of transport links: This can be
used, for example, for a Strategic Environment
Assessment (SEA) of the Trans-European Transport
Network (TEN-T).
o Modification of land use zoning: This can be used, for
example, to assess the effects on land use
development of prohibiting the development of
artificial surfaces in natural areas.
o Modification of land use suitability: This can be used,
for example, to assess the effects on land use
development of decreasing the flooding risk, due to
infrastructural improvements.
o Modification of socio-economic data: This can be
used, for example, to assess the effects on land use
development of a changing economic climate (e.g.
decreased industrial production).
o Modification of model’s transition rules: This can be
used, for example, to capture the particular cultural
characteristics of an area (e.g. in certain areas,
nearness to water might be considered attractive for
residential areas).
The alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios are
presented to the MOLAND urban and regional growth model in
the form of digital data-sets of the transport networks, socio-
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