International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XXXIX-B8, 2012 
XXII ISPRS Congress, 25 August — 01 September 2012, Melbourne, Australia 
RISK ZONE MODELLING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR VISCERAL 
LEISHMANIASIS (KALA-AZAR) DISEASE IN BIHAR, INDIA USING REMOTE 
SENSING AND GIS 
A. Jeyaram *, Shreekant Kesari ^, Anju Bajpai *, Gouri sankar Bhunia 5 YVN Krishna Murthy © 
? Regional Remote Sensing Centre - East, National Remote Sensing Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, 
Kolkata, India, ajeyaram2002 @yahoo.co.in 
® Department of Vector Biology and Control, Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences ICMR), 
Patna, India 
* Dy. Director (RC), National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO, Hyderabad, India 
Commission VIII, WG VIIU2 
KEY WORDS: Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kala-azar, vector density, Satellite data, Remote Sensing, GIS 
ABSTRACT: 
Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) commonly known as Kala-azar is one of the most neglected tropical disease affecting approximately 
200 million poorest populations ‘at risk’ in 109 districts of three endemic countries namely Bangladesh, India and Nepal at different 
levels. This tropical disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania donovani and transmitted by female Phlebotomus 
argentipes sand flies. The analysis of disease dynamics indicate the periodicity at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scale which 
forms the basis for development of advanced early warning system. Study area of highly endemic Vaishali district, Bihar, India has 
been taken for model development. A Systematic study of geo-environmental parameters derived from satellite data in conjunction 
with ground intelligence enabled modelling of infectious disease and risk villages. High resolution Indian satellites data of IRS LISS 
IV (multi-spectral) and Cartosat-1 (Pan) have been used for studying environmentally risk parameters viz. peri-domestic vegetation, 
dwelling condition, wetland ecosystem, cropping pattern, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), detailed land use etc 
towards risk assessment. Univariate analysis of the relationship between vector density and various land cover categories and 
climatic variables suggested that all the variables are significantly correlated. Using the significantly correlated variables with vector 
density, a seasonal multivariate regression model has been carried out incorporating geo-environmental parameters, climate 
variables and seasonal time series disease parameters. Linear and non-linear models have been applied for periodicity and inter- 
annual temporal scale to predict Man-hour-density (MHD) and ‘out-of-fit’ data set used for validating the model with reasonable 
accuracy. To improve the MHD predictive approach, fuzzy model has also been incorporated in GIS environment combining spatial 
geo-environmental and climatic variables using fuzzy membership logic. Based on the perceived importance of the geo- 
environmental parameters assigned by epidemiology expert, combined fuzzy membership has been calculated. The combined fuzzy 
membership indicate the predictive measure of vector density in each village. A Y factor has been introduced to have increasing 
effect in the higher side and decreasing effect in the lower side which facilitated for prioritisation of the villages. "This approach is 
not only to predict vector density but also to prioritise the villages for effective control measures. A software package for modelling 
the risk villages integrating multivariate regression and fuzzy membership analysis models have been developed to estimate MHD 
(vector density) as part of the early warning system. 
1. INTRODUCTION 
Larvae 
1.1 General 
India has 52 kala-azar endemic districts in four states of India - 
Bihar (31 districts with 62.3 million population), Uttar Pradesh 
(11 districts with 50.0 million population), West Bengal (6 
districts with 11.0 million population), and Jharkhand (4 
districts with 6.7 million population). Each year, Bihar alone 
contributes 70-80 % of the kala-azar cases. In 1992, the highest 
number of cases were reported (77170) after which the 
incidence has declined gradually. However, from 2003 to 2007 
there has been a steady increase in the annual number of 
reported cases. In 2008, 31716 cases and 141 deaths were 
reported. A study in a predefined endemic focus revealed that 
an optimal of 8 Man-Hour-Density (MHD) which is critical 
: : . . : Transmit 
vector density was essential for P.argentipes enabling it to to Human Sandfly 
transmit infection from one infected host to a new host. The Bite 
transmission cycle of Kala-azar vector is shown in fig. 1. The 
sand fly is generally confined in the dwellings and occasionally 
goes out to take sucrose from the soft stem plants in the vicinity 
to digest the blood meal. In the present study, it was observed 
  
    
  
  
  
  
   
    
      
Sandfly tL 
Sandfty : 
Kala-azar 
Transmission 
Cycle — 
  
  
  
  
  
Fig. 1. Disease Transmission cycle of Kala-azar