] land 
pplied 
© CO- 
latıon 
le 2. 
Judgement: 
1%. *5% 
d 
Highly developed countries such as Japan, 
Korea lost their cultivation area, but most of 
the countries in Asia, they increase the 
cultivation area and most of the case they 
decrease forest area. 
3.5 Modeling the land use change in Asia 
In this paper, we show the modeling the 
land use change as for Japan making use of 
system dynamics method. Another country's 
sector is applied for same method. The ratio 
of urban population is calculated from GDP. 
Each land such as cropland, farm land, forest 
and other are calculated from the ratio of 
urban population. As for Japan, the co- 
relation between the ratio of urban population 
and the forest change is not a statistically 
significant, forest area are calculated from 
total area minus cropland, farm land. forest 
and other. These relationships are as follows. 
JaCITY.K 
=73.33031+(JaGDP.K)x0.0000011493 
JaKouchi.K 
=295,528 +(JaCitv.K)x(-3.234) 
JaKangai.K 
=196.474 +(JaCity.K)x(-2,177) 
JaShinrin.K 
=376,520- 
(JaKouchi.K+JaKangai.K+JaEtc.K) 
JaEtc.K=-335,838 +(JaCity.K)x5,008 
3.6 Comparing calculated value and actual 
value 
Comparison of calculated value and actual 
value is shown in Fig.4. It is possible to say 
that calculated value follows the actual value. 
4 FORECASTING THE LAND USE 
CHANGE IN ASIA 
4.1 Conditions 
GDP is obtained from a calculation 
involving capital and labor using the Cobb- 
Douglas function and it is applied for 
calculating land use change. GDP deflator is 
thought to be showing the stability of the 
country’s economic conditions. The co- 
relation between GDP deflator and year is 
calculated and the forecasting the GDP 
deflator is conducted. Investment is obtained 
from the forecasted GDP growth rate. Also 
the forecasted labor growth ratio is obtained 
from each government report. The applied 
values for the growth rate of GDP and labor 
until 2010 are shown in Table.3. 
Table 3. Growth rate of GDP and labor 
  
GDP growth rate labor growth rate 
Japan 1.2 0.6 
Thailand 4.3 25 
Sri Lanka 3.8 22 
Philippines 6.4 22 
Myanmar 3.8 22 
Malaysia 4.3 2.8 
Korea Rep 4.3 23 
Indonesia 6.4 24 
India 3.8 22 
China 7.0 2.0 
  
International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Vol. XXXII, Part 7, Budapest, 1998 
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