750 
set the estimation of regression. ^ The emissions in 
2000 is based on the results of China energy con 
sumption estimation in 2000 and the real changing 
tendency in 1980s. According to this, we have the 
data of the emissions, because the data are only a 
linear regression equation estimation of S02, TSP 
and Dust, the estimation of NOx is quoted from 
'Chinese Environment in 2000' (G.P.QU, et a 1,1987). 
The above comparison form of possible emissions in 
2000 which is the calculation for the tendency of 
emissions per energy consumption coefficient in 
1980s and the emissions from the book of 'China 
Environment in 2000' (G.P.QU, et al, 1987). These 
data close to the value of the middle-level control 
project from this book. In fact, the investment on 
harness waste gas and the situation of real harness 
can't reach the level of the middle control project. 
4.3. The Predicting Result By Linear 
Regression Method 
According to the data of air monitoring, to have an 
linear regression analysis the averange in the 
whole country and the corresponding emissions, we 
can carry out the regression coefficient of S02, 
TSP and Dust. During the calculation we cancel the 
data which may has some error. Hie data of S02 is 
selected from information in 1981-1987; TSP cancels 
the date of 1984 and Dust date is selected from 
1981-1988. Now we have a regression equation • 
Y (S02) mg /m3 = 0.0001 * X (10.000T) - 0.0152 
Y (TSP) mg /m3 = 0.00018 * X (10.000T) + 0.137 
Y (Dust) T/km2 per month = 0.0l*XU0,000T)+2.847 
Each the correlation coefficient of regression 
equation is over 0.7. Using these equation to 
calculate the annual average concentration of air 
pollutants in the whole country in 2000, we can see 
Table.4. 
In these equation, C is the concentration: K is a 
coefficient of correction: Q is a rate of the 
emissions (mg/s): (1 is wind speed (m/s): D is the 
mixing heigh (m): V is a width of the city which is 
perpendicular to the upwind of the city. The Y is 
the accumulation of the U*D*W from every city in 
whole country. We select the comparison years is 
1981 and 1982. Their NOx emissions are 4.4 million 
tons and 4.14 millions tons. Thus we have: 
C mg /m3 = Q(mg/s) /2061137000 - 0.0187 
Table.5 The results of NOx in 2000 comparing with 
in 1981 and in 1982. UNIT: EMISSION IS 10,000T 
LEVEL IS MG/M3 
I ITEM T H C P T M C P T 1981 1982 
b 4~ ■ -f- —b — -b ■ — "i 
i EMISS j 772 | 813.6 ! 440 I 414 i 
b -f- H - i ~h H 
| LEVEL f 0.100 I 0.106 ^ 0.049 0.045 I 
HOP and MCP same as Table.5. EMISS: emission. 
4.4. Conclusion 
Through the above calculation we can see that it 
will not have groat improvement in the air 
environmental quality in the year 2000,and the S02, 
NOx pollution will aggravate. It is estimated that 
the pollution concentration will be doubled.At that 
time, the NOx pollution will appear clearly,and the 
dusty pollution will keep the level of that in the 
end of 1980s. It must be pointed out that this con 
clusion should be according to an essential premise 
that we must have great progresses of industy 
harness in 1990s. 
1)-We have problems from funds to technology on 
dealing with the S02 pollution. It seems we 
can't avoid that pollution which will get more 
serious. This has a bad influnce on southern 
acid rain . 
The estimation of NOx level accorded to the 
proportion modle ( X.L.LIU, and S.X.HONG, 1987 ) in 
each city: 
Cx = (Qx / ll*D*W) + K 
K = Co - (Qo / U*D*W) 
In the whole country , we have a equation : 
C = Q / Y + K 
Table.4 The results of polluted level 
predicting by emissions in 2000. 
RESULTS ! H 
! ITEM b r - 4 -r 
I EMISSION i LEVEL i EMISSION ! 
'T 4 
! S02 I 1,992 I 0.184 I 1,846 I 
4 4— 4- 4 
i TSP I 2,240 I 0.540 ! 1,285 i 
f Dust ! 2,240 f 25.25 j 1,285 f 
2).The NOx pollution has become more and more 
serious in China air pollution. In 1990s, if we 
won't pay more attention to harness it, the auto 
pollution will be obviously in many cities. At 
present, it has drawn the attention of the 
department. In many cities have already launched 
the work for monitoring and dealing with the 
pollution of auto exhaustion in the last years 
of 1980s. It will has a good affect on restrain 
ing the NOx pollution. 
UNIT: EMISSION IS 10,000T 
LEVEL IS MG/M3 
P MCP 
'4- - t H 
LEVEL 
! EMISSION 1 
LEVEL 1 
~b -b 
H 
0.169 
1 2,071 | 
0.192 j 
~f— -j- 
H 
0.368 
1 2,207 1 
0.534 
15.70 
T 2,207 T 
24.92 1 
HCP and MCP: high and middle control project 
in the book by W.X.WANG et al, 1987.