leased 
rvice 
n 
977, 
| data 
d. 
imation 
uld 
oning 
Faulty 
loss 
ion of 
| 
T 92 
   
corrected and the LACIE estimates re- 
computed assuming a 30-day Landsat data 
processing delay. The resulting esti- 
mates were released on January 23, before 
the final Soviet release. In a future 
operation, such results could be produced 
as early as August or September. These 
estimates are also shown in figure 12. 
These improved results were within 3% of 
the Soviet figures in August, some 
3 months preharvest. An analysis of the 
results in the U.S.S.R. at the oblast 
level using historic data for comparison 
indicates that the LACIE estimates at 
those levels were realistic and supportive 
of the results at the country level. 
Even though the LACIE U.S.S.R. esti- 
mates agreed well with the final Soviet 
report, the question remained: Was this 
agreement for the right reasons, or was 
it just a statistical fluke? A detailed 
comparison of the conditions that led to 
the Soviet shortfall in spring wheat pro- 
duction and the response observed in the 
LACIE models provided conclusive evidence 
that the LACIE forecast technology did 
indeed respond for good reason and in a 
timely fashion. In figure 13, the Soviet 
spring wheat region May-June temperatures 
expressed as a percentage of the long 
term average are displayed by crop region 
Note that over most of the Soviet spring 
wheat regions the growing season tempera- 
tures were warmer than average. These 
elevated temperatures led to moisture 
deficiencies through increased demand on 
available precipitation. These moisture 
deficiencies are displayed in figure 14 
in terms of the monthly precipitation 
minus the potential evapotranspiration* - 
a key variable in the LACIE yield fore- 
casts. These data indicate that the 
above-normal temperatures in the growing 
*Potential evapotranspiration (PET) 
computed by the Thornthwaite method. 
  
—fhra| — 
Caspian à 
$ + 
  
  
T | 
ore] dl ne U.S.S.R. SPRING 
She WHEAT REGION 
104% 119% VW. 
114% 
Pa +=; 5 19 
114% 
6 
103% 110% 
109% 
t1 de M 21 
103% 
155% 
100% 
AH AH + 
   
   
  
   
CROP REGION 
- NORTHWEST URALS 
- SOUTHERN URALS 
- NORTHEASTERN URALS 2 
- WESTERN KAZAKHSTAN 
- KUSTANAY OBLAST 
- YSELINOGRAD 
- NORTHERN KAZAKHSTAN 
- PAVLODAR OBLAST 
—+ 26 - WESTERN SIBERIA 
- ALTAY KRAY 
- SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN 
^ YURKMEN 
47257322: 
+ 
LE E 
  
  
Figure 13.— Percent of normal for May-June temperature in Soviet 
spring wheat regions.