above-normal and below-normal yields 
have? To answer this question quantita- 
tively, the total wheat hectarage grow- 
ing in each of these crop regions must 
be known. The LACIE wheat hectarage 
estimates for each region were multiplied 
by the forecast yield per hectare to 
obtain a production estimation for each 
region. When these individual production 
figures were summed, the overall estimate 
of spring wheat production was 36.3 
million metric tons, a deviation from 
normal of about 21%. Figure 18 shows 
that the initial August LACIE forecasts 
of Soviet spring wheat yields - 9 quintals 
per hectare - were about 21% below the 
Soviet spring wheat average of 11.5. 
The performance of the Soviet esti- 
mates was also supported by more inten- 
sive evaluations in the U.S. yardstick. 
Phase III results in this region support 
  
USSR. 
420 412 415 41.4 413 
* nanas Pme e 
411 
36.6 
ë 
8 
i 
* 
5 
i 
seruat FAS 
LACIE 
  
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR [MAY] JUN] JUL [AUG] SEP [OCT | NOV | DEC 
  
  
YIELD 
Quintals/hectare 
e....... FAS 
LACIE 
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN [ JUL TAUG | SEP J OCT | NOV | DEC 
PRODUCTION 
  
  
  
Millions of metric tons 
s........ FAS 
LACIE 
  
  
  
DEC | JAN | FEB [MAR] APR | MAY] JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC 
LACIE — realtime reporting 17-3408 
3218 
Figure 18.— LACIE U.S.S.R. spring wheat 
forecasts for 1977. 
a conclusion that the technical modifica- 
tions incorporated into the experiment 
had indeed led to significant improvement 
in the analysis of Landsat data. The 
production estimates for the region 
were compared throughout the season to the 
"true value" given by the U.S. Statistical 
Reporting Service (SRS).* The LACIE 
estimates met the 90/90 accuracy goal at 
harvest and even achieved this 1-1/2 to 2 
months before harvest. The results of the 
area and yield components for the region 
are shown in figure 19. It can be noted 
that the acreage estimates were quite good 
while the yield forecasts tended to be under 
those of the Statistical Reporting Service. 
*The Statistical Reporting Service (SRS) 
has since become a part of the Economics, 
Statistics, and Cooperatives Service 
(ESCS). 
  
50.0 509 496 
492 496 
Millions of acres 
een... ESCS 
LACIE 
  
  
  
DEC [JAN J FEB [MART APR [MAY T JUN T JUL [AUG [ SEP J OCT [NOV [ DEC 
  
YIEID 
280 277 27.6 27.5 
  
PRODUCTION 
1384 1376 
1270 1269 1223 1228 1232 
Millions of bushels 
........ ESCS 
LACIE 
  
  
  
DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR] APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT [NOV | DEC 
LACIE — reai—time reporting 
9—state total 
Colorado, Kensas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, 
Minnesota, North Dskota, and South Dakota 
  
Figure 19.— Phase III U.S. yardstick 
estimates.