inu- 
d in 
| the 
no- 
onic 
ins 
onic 
the 
ograd, 
Macedonia. Fractural fabric seen in this map differs signi- 
ficantly from the LANDSAT-seen picture: the role of the 
ancient NNW-oriented fractures on it is much more 
accentuated (Fig.4) and the neotectonic NW-SE fractures 
are not prominent enough to be perceived for a separate 
system and not merely deflecting from the NNW-SSE one. The 
Polog depression (8) is conspicuous, same as the Kriva 
Lakavica graben (2), but faults striking SW-NE have been 
noted on air photographs only partially (e.g. the BoZava 
fault, 10). Fig.5 shows the fractures which are common for 
both maps. 
SEISMOTECTONIC IMPLICATIONS 
Two important directions of seismological investigations 
are much discussed today: short-term earthquake prediction, 
and analysis of seismic risk or seismic zoning. The aim of 
the short-term prediction is foreseeing an earthquake in 
certain area in a time span sufficient for salvage of popu- 
lation and public property. Development of such forecasts, 
which is expected in foreseable future, would help enormously 
in degreasing the number of victims and the general damage. 
But they are of no importance for regional planning, where 
forecasts should cover a time span of 101-10° years. What 
is needed are the analyses of seismic risk, with the purpose 
of classifying the area according to the expected frequency 
of seismic shocks, their maximum energy release, and damage 
done. Several approaches are attempted, especially the 
statistical analysis of earhhquake frequency in space .and 
time, and the analysis of geological controls of seismic 
activity. 
Earthquake statistics is doubtlessly important, being based 
on the observed facts and not on hypotheses. Based on the idea 
of certain (and rather short-term) periodicity in the energy 
release it has, nevertheless, serious limitations. A very 
impressive illustration represents the cummulative diagram 
of the seismic energy release for Khansu and Northern China 
in the last 2000 years (Mei, 1960). In the area, where in 
1556 occurred one of the most disastrous earthquakes known,