between 200 and 1000 the released seismic energy was virtu-
ally negligible, and the catastrophe of 1668 struck the
area where no earthquake worth mentioning ever occured
during the hystoric period. (Fig. 6)
Like many seismotectonists, we also believe that a much
more efficient tool for estimation of seismic risk is the
analysis of neotectonic activity of faults. Logic is
obvious: there is a low probabilkty for movements along
large fractures to be single-acted events; they are
generally intermittent. If their activity during Holocene
or at least during the Quaternary in general could be proved,
it would mean a high probability that their activity
would repeat in a geologically narrow time span. The
connection between neotecténically active faults and
earthquakes is well documented in California (Allen,1965),
Turkey (Ambraseys,1971), Japan (Matsuda,1974; Matsuda and
Okada,1968), Philippines (Allen,1962), China (Kuo,1957;
Deng et 81.1972) and other areas.
Analysis of LANDSAT imagery has shown that ancient ruptural
discontinuities show in relief only exceptionally, unless
also lithological. In fact, the most of fractures known
to be neotectonically active have been noticed on the
imagery of Macedonia as relief controlling. It follows
that in Macedonia seismotectonically are most significant
the fractures striking NW-SE and SW-NE. Taking into account
all limitations of the statistical method, at the moment
it is the only possibility to verify our hypothesis of the
seismotectonic meaning of the noted fractures. Data on the
macroseismic epicenters in the SR of Macedonia from 1901
to 1970 have been taken from the UNDP-UNESCO Survey of the
Seismicity of the Balkan Region: Catalogue of Earthquakes,
Part I (1974), where all shocks with I) 68 gre listed.