Migration is the phenomenon, which include the
economic decision, social consequences and spatial
relation. Thus the process of the migration and
individual decision to migrate is not so simple. While
formulating the policy to address migration, all these
factors should be considered. The literatures in the
field of migration are mostly related to the economic
factors along with some social consideration. May
literature are found since long back, but Todaro
(1969) has given the theoretical formulation on
migration by including the rural urban wage gap and
probability of getting urban job. This model became
popular after Harris (Harris and Todaro, 1970)
modified the original model by keeping the basic
essence of the Todaro model. The lack of spatial
consideration in the Todaro model is main constraint.
The ignorance of the spatial or geographical factors
might be due to the lack of data in developing
countries. It can be also pointed out that the subject
of migration is considered as only the matter of
socioeconomic.
With this background, the present study is proposed
with the following objectives:
General objective of this study is to define and
address the migration problem by considering the
socioeconomic and geo-spatial aspect of the rural as
well as urban sector. The specific objectives are:
• To generate the geo-spatial data for the
estimation of possible rural wage pattern over
time.
• To establish the relationship among the
migration, estimated resources parameters, wage,
amenities and the RDP.
• To validate and propose alternative migration
model and policy along with alternative scenario.
2 THE TODARO MODEL
and thus inversely related to the urban
unemployment rate.
4) Migration rate in excess of urban job
opportunity growth rates is not only possible but
also rational and even likely in the face of wide
urban-rural expected-income differentials. High
rates of urban unemployment are therefore
inevitable outcomes of the serious imbalance of
economic opportunities between urban and rural
areas in most underdeveloped countries.
Thus the Todaro Model is written as
M, = a * (p * W u - W r ) (1)
Where,
M,: Migrants in time t
a: Responsiveness parameters (varies by
culture, cost of moving)
p: Probability of finding a job in urban area
and given by:
E U /(E U +U U )
Where,
E u: Urban employment
U u: Urban unemployment
W u : Expected urban wage
W r : Rural wage known with certainty
In earlier version of Todara Model the flow of
migration concept was taken and discounted present
value was calculated for the planned time span of
migrant, which he had decided to live in the urban
area. The equation was written as (Todaro, 1969)
K(0) = J[p(0K,(f) - Yr(t)]e' rt dt - C(0) ( 2 )
(-0
This model considers two basic factors, that are
expected wage difference and probability to get the
job in urban area, which are responsible for the rural-
urban migration even in the light of urban
unemployment or underemployment. The model has
the four basic characteristics (Todaro, 1997):
1) Migration is stimulated primarily by rational
economic considerations of relative benefits and
costs, mostly financial but also psychological.
2) The decision to migrate depends on expected
rather than actual urban-rural real wage
differentials, where the expected differential is
determined by the interaction of two variables,
the actual urban-rural wage differential and the
probability of successfully obtain employment
in the urban sector.
3) The probability of obtaining an urban job is
directly related to the urban employment rate
and the migration will take place if it is positive.
Where,
V (0):
№
Y u & Y r :
C (0):
Discounted present value
Probability of job in period t
Urban and Rural real wage
Number of time period in migrants
planning horizon
Discount rate
Cost of migration
Probability is calculated as: say probability in x
period after migration, p (x), is:
p(l) = Jt(l) and p(2) = n (1) + [1 - Jt (1)] k (2), so
p{x)=Ji{ 1) +
X
* (Ojjt 1
-;r(s)]
(3)
Pl-5-2
